App-only eCommerce: A bad idea

Flipkart has gone ahead and officially stated, that over the year, it will shut down its desktop and (surely) mobile website and move to an app-only store. They seem to be following the sister concern Myntra's move to go app-only from May 1st, a week from now. If you ask me, they could not have got it more wrong.

Recent data might suggest (I don't have this data, but somebody must have used more than their gut feeling to announce such a move, right?) that there is a tremendous growth for acquisition and conversion on Apps; especially a huge potential in 'Tier II and beyond' bases in India. So true of a country where most people get their first taste of internet freedom via a mobile data plan. But, that is just a part of the picture.

Then, there is the theory that suggests internet will go the 'Push way' and 'supply' information you need like a 'utility' such as water and electricity. OK. Enough said. Then there is the other theory that uses the evolving platform/notification features of recent and upcoming Android and iO/S versions with streaming notifications to weakly support that App is the only way to go.

After its Billion Dollar Sale blunder, Flipkart is likely readying itself for another blunder with its app-only move. Agreed, that are many reasons to have an app for an e-commerce set-up and they are great for several good reasons. But does that mean you do not have a mobile website or desktop website altogether? That's preposterous.

I buy a lot, much to my wife's chagrin (generally, about spending), a lot... online. For many reasons, the purchases are split, chiefly, between Flipkart and Amazon, and to a smaller extent, Snapdeal, eBay, category stores and the likes. Then there are the specialized sites in international locations catering to a national population. I go there too. There is no count of how many times I have used and will use the apps of local cab companies to call a ride across town, Airline tickets, hotel bookings, restaurant reviews, product reviews, movie tickets and a few other things I am forgetting, all have been bought online. But, with the exception of Taxis, that too only in the last few months, I have not used apps exclusively for any type of purchase. For all but Taxis, apps is just the last step for me. I would be a typical if not a champion profile of the current generation of digital consumers. So, may be they should be reading this article and considering my perspective. Here it is:

• I like to research the products that I buy. Mobile App, how much ever passionately you built it, sucks for this purpose. Don't take it personally. It's the same for everyone. I don't even want to talk about how difficult it is to filter and sort products (why restrict the filter and sort options on Apps?). Worse, if I am simply 'exploring' a category for what's new out there. 
• I like the big feel of the pictures. No, pinch zoom is a compromise for me; for those times that I am in a queue at a checkout line or killing time at the airport.
• I go to apps, sure, for making that final step of buying and taking that app-only discount or another incentive you have put out there for me.
• I sign out of apps, after I do the purchase. Sometime, I uninstall a shopping app altogether, just to avoid your excitement of 'offers I should not miss'.
• Push is NOT they way for me. Of the several mailboxes I maintain, my work mailbox is the only one that's on Push or Sync mode. I like to pull down the screen to refresh my mailboxes. That's the way it should be. I choose when I want to see the email. If I expect something critical, I will go there more often. But that true for email and it's true for everything else.
• If you figure out my buying journey and 'attribution' entirely and accurately, you'll see that I will come to your desktop site as many times as I need to know more about the product, the comparisons, the reviews (until more reviews get posted) and shipping policies, wishlist, reading book excerpts etc. I do all this on the Desktop site. I grew up reading newspapers and still read a lot of books (checkout my order history, if you can). But, I don't do all the product related reading in a small screen, simply because I have better choice- the widescreen of the laptop (I am not forgetting that App on a Tab also provides a midway solution).

If you read between the lines, you will see themes of usability, user interface, user experience and traditional convenience of a large screen. Mobile apps might be hep and the key thing for your VC/PE pitches, but for me, all's good as long as you keep your desktop sites live and running. Shut down your desktop site and I will leave in a hurry, because you ignored one segment, the likes of me.


Flipkart, India's homegrown eCommerce bell weather might just go down in the history for the biggest blunder yet (even if they later recover from their big bet), should they decide to shutdown their desktop site. Don't do it.

In The Rush: My White Water Rafting Experience

"My name is Viru and I am going to teach you why the paddle will be your best friend and maybe even your life saver today" is how the orientation began for about 40 of us gathered on a late December morning for a white water rafting experience. I looked around as everyone adjusted to the chill in the breeze blowing over the shallow waters. Shortly, the water would rise. We listened with rapt attention as he continued for the next fifteen minutes on how to hold the paddle correctly for effortless rowing, the need for synchronisation in rowing, what to do when one falls off the raft, safe position to float in rapids etc.

Interestingly, I spotted a few people in their mid to late fifties while most of the crowd was in their mid twenties. Bivouacking at a nature camp with my family I had decided to take the morning away for white water rafting in the Bhori river near Kolad, Maharashtra.  Regulated by a hydel power dam, the river is a popular rafting point, especially in the monsoon and is a Level 3 rapid for most parts. Around the year, however, the rapids are created by waters from a hydel dam that irrigate the farmland and serve as the primary source of potable water in the region.

As we waited for the gates of the dam to be opened, we were asked to fill up the "risk undertaking and non-indemnity" (i.e. "I am responsible for any kind of injury to me") form. We were geared up in helmets, life jackets and paddles in hand. I also had a dry bag slung on my back with some money, change of clothes and car keys in it. I had earlier driven down with Mercury Himalayan Expeditions (MHE) team in their pick up truck. Before that, it was with much curiosity I had witnessed deceptively lean looking Gorkhas load with deftness two fully inflated rafts, at least 12 feet long, and secure them on top of the truck. With equal swiftness, they had loaded about 40 life jackets, and an equal number of helmets and paddles in what was a morning routine for them.

A feeling of nervous confidence in the air, which had hitherto lingered around the gathered crowd, turned to one of exhilaration when we heard a roar of water gushing down the hill. We bellowed as we saw the rocky bed of the ravine submerge under the jetting irrigate. Some of the taller trees stood proudly above water, their tops proudly showing off their height above the filled up ravine. Water would continue to rise a few feet per minute for several more minutes. That was a lot of water rolling down the valley and I felt very small in the scheme of things. Knowing that such destructive force was managed by the touch of a few buttons offered superfluous consolation.

We took our spots on the dinghy, more randomly than by instruction or choice. The blue and yellow inflatable raft had a seating capacity of ten. There were six of us on this raft loosely anchored to the rocks by a rope. A raft leader would join us momentarily. I could make out from the talk going on in the raft that I was a with a group of students, five men well known to each other. Later, I was told by one of them that they were all doctoral candidates. I was amused thinking that between the six of us 17 academic degrees could be counted.

Just then, a man with swim tights and complete rafting gear hopped onto the boat. "My name is Deepak and I will be your raft leader today. Let's get this boat loose.", he said and untied the rope that anchored the raft. As a raft slowly drifted into the pool of back water created by the flash flood in the river, Deepak recalled the instructions and told us we would now practice all that we had learned in the past hour. I looked around to other boats doing the same manoeuvres as we were practicing. Right in the middle one of the MHE safety crew was bobbing in and out of water with his snug fit sit-in kayak; his way of getting the feel of the water. Noticing that we were struggling to synchronise, I volunteered a suggestion that the guys at the head of the boat sync each others' movements while each of us synced up with the person immediately in front of them. There was a round of "yeahs" as the idea sunk in.

Sooner or later, this was bound to happen, and it did: people started splashing water on each other and there was brief water fighting all around. Following suggestions from the raft leaders, some people jumped into water just to get the feel of how cold it was. No doubt those who jumped first were good swimmers. It was a little early for the non swimmers to get used to the comfort and security of the life jackets. The life jacket is probably the most fantastic safety equipment. But, more on that later.

I could see the first raft slowly rowed toward the current. Supported by the steady rush of the water, the boat eased itself downstream. Guided by Deepak, we made our way past the overhanging shrubs and bushes in the direction of the current. Immediately our training was put to action. As we steered clear of the trees jutting out the in the middle of the rapids, we kept our arms rowing to the direction of Deepak's voice. "Left side forward, right side back" turned the raft left, out of the way of the boat ahead of us,"We will soon hit our first rapid; this one is called 'Good Morning'!"

(To be Continued... Watch this space)

Road rage, unprovoked, is clear & present in Mumbai

NOTE: For the protection of identity of my friend, all factors of identification have been obfuscated, but the incident is real and an FIR is lodged with one of the police stations in Mumbai.

Right on the heels of Gurgaon’s Seema Kataria case (Read Here), comes a case in in Aamchi Mumbai.  Shocking, more so because this has happened to someone I know well.

A friend of mine, a lady, let’s called her Jane, was driving alone in what could be considered an safe, quiet and innocuous neighborhood in Mumbai.

The particular stretch of road is narrow and just about allows two vehicles to carefully pass each other. A BEST bus halts at a designated stop and Jane stops her car waiting for the bus to pass. A biker, a man with another one on the pillion, in a hurry tries to overtake the bus but is faced with a stopped car of Jane. But unless the bus moves, neither Jane's car nor the bike can get beyond the point. That’s all there to the start of this scene. What happens next is unbelievable but has really transpired…

The biker starts abusing her for ‘blocking his way’. Jane double checks that her windows are rolled up and doors locked, and patiently waits for the bus to move hoping the enraged biker goes his way. The biker's barrage of verbal abuse goes on for about half a minute. But ruffled by Jane’s patient wait, this guy loses it all and pulls out his helmet (so far suspended to the bike's handlebar) and starts pounding it into the windshield of Jane’s car. Within a few seconds the windshield is cracked all over, but thankfully does not collapse down on her. The act of blatant unprovoked vandalism happens in the presence of at least 30 onlookers, several shopkeepers around and other drivers on bikes, cars and the BEST bus nearby. Jane keeps her cool, despite being paralyzed by fear, and thinks about the options she has. She decides that doing anything would enrage the biker, he having already done so much damage unprovoked and audaciously in the presence of the public. The BEST bus moves, biker finds his way out and rips away. Jane manages to note down the registration number of the bike.

Jane drives down to the the police station a few hundred meters away expecting that the information about the enraged biker would be followed up immediately. But, she is informed that they cannot do anything without an FIR and that FIR can be filed only in the main police station a few kilometers away. There is no further explanation provided to her. Soon after, Jane drives down to the Main Police Station and files her FIR, knowing very well that this would be only useful for insurance claim and nothing much else by way of justice.

But, the bigger question looming over this is whether the public can feel protected from audacious goons. Do such unaddressed cases of unprovoked vandalism only encourage such unscrupulous behavior? What’s happened here can happen to anyone anywhere and is a daily phenomenon. When it happens to us, we realise we have been living in our little cocoons made of cotton candy and we wake up to the reality of the grim state of affairs. Fearing uncontrolled dire consequences we remain silent about these issues.

After all not every case can be highlighted in the media and not everyone has access to the top level of police machinery, to ensure justice is meted out in time and in every case.

About PGPX and IIMA debuting at #11 on FT.com’s Global MBA Rankings 2011

On January 31^st, 2011, FT.com released their 2011 Global MBA Rankings (Read Here). IIMA made its debut in these rankings at #11. This is the best ever debut, but more on that later. 

When an iconic business school that has, over the last five decades, defined its contribution to the society through leaders who have led big changes in the Indian and international arena debuts on the MBA ranking scales in this manner, there is a lot of surprise. Why? Because owing to technicalities in ranking processes of international MBA billboards, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad never qualified for the rankings before. For the record, no other IIM has qualified, so far.

There is no doubt that MBA rankings recognize the School and not just the Programme. Because the school is what makes the ecosystem for learning; made possible by best in class faculty who do top of the line research, and using tools and pedagogy honed over years of research and student feedback, enable learning in their unique ways. Alumni of the institute keep the flag flying high and attract larger numbers of aspirants to the school. The students thrive in this environment and later as alumni themselves, through their real contributions and progression in their careers carry forward the alma mater’s glory and contribute to it.

In the context of rankings the change began when IIMA started to redefine the IIMA class, in more ways than one, with the PGPX programme. (Read about PGPX here)  PGPX, the 1-year full time residential programme, attracts applicants with substantial work experience. A PGPX student, on an average, has 10 years of work experience, before he or she joins the full time residential programme. Additionally, international experience is recommended, though not mandatory. Now, the international MBA programmes in other countries, typically, admit students having about 4-5 years of work experience. Over the last couple of decades, while the IIMs have seen large growth in student numbers for the PGP batches (the 2-year full time residential programme), the classes continue to have substantial number of students with nil or minimal (by international standards) prior work experience. This constitution is what prevented IIMA from getting qualified for the MBA school rankings, all these years. The much needed, much deserved recognition in the world of MBA schools was left much awaited for IIMA.

At IIMA, FT.com ranking was sought since the qualification criteria were met in 2009, when the third batch of PGPX graduated. Now, FT.com ranking process includes a mandatory survey of graduates who have been working for 3 years after completing the programme. But that requirement changed when FT.com clarified that they needed the 4^th batch out before IIMA could qualify. Therefore, the evaluation of the IIMA for the ranking was made possible only in 2010.

The debut of IIMA at #11 is the ‘best ever debut’ (Read the release here) and it is no simple achievement for a business school from India to do this. Right behind IIMA, on the FT.com rankings is Indian School of Business (ISB, Hyderabad, India). They were quick to clarify in their press release (Read ISB's press release here) that it was the PGPX programme that qualified for these rankings. They have enough reason to make this clarification.

But, as should be well understood, the ranking belongs to the entire Faculty, the Alumni, the managers and administrators and students of IIMA who’ve made possible the millions of aspects that go into building an iconic institution. A great way to begin a year when IIMA celebrates its Golden Jubilee!

Digital detox

Here's what's cool about the latest smartphones: You can do pretty much anything you want to do online right on the phone. No doubt that this has been available for some time, but, now it's only easier and more user-friendly and, in India, definitely affordable by the month. With the new phones emails, Facebook, Twitter and newsfeeds are integral to the basic user interface. As per Dec 2010 statistics, actually, smartphone prices are down close to 50% compared to 12 months back.I am not into gaming and related graphics. But I do admire the fact that so much power is packed in a chocolate bar sized device. Let me talk about how smartphones help me 'remain connected'. Or should I say helped me 'get connected'?

I enjoyed 'remaining connected' for a few months.I was proud to be among the tweeples. In fact, I was measuring my remaining connectedness quotient by the number of tweets I was skimming, number of pages I was turning on the multi-tab Opera browser, the number of tweets I throughput out there myself, checking emails the second they arrived (sometimes also checking whether the webpage on the laptop refreshed faster than the email loaded on my Blackberry), using my phone to follow my favourite photographers, reading friends' blogs, swapping and posting pictures etc. Do you know your Twifficiency score is? I know mine. 'Life is good, eh?'

Then one day, my beloved 8520 slipped out of my hands and fell just 2.5 feet down to the floor. 'No big deal', I thought. My sturdy 7130c had been well tested for impact from greater heights and more frequent drops from my son's little hands. (The joke used to be that I ought to let my son play the 7130c piece so that I could buy a new model. But, ...the...phone...just...wouldn't...die) Anyway, as luck would have it, the 8520 display went ashen and I was told the display module would be replaced under warranty.

I was back with my old faithful 7130c. I thought I would go into the classic cycle of denial, anger,(negotiation), depression and acceptance in the face of my 'recent digital disability'. What about all those unread tweets, all the pages waiting to be read, all the emails I would be visiting after the conversations had died? I expected to be more irritable etc.But, I no more miss 'being connected'.

It began by knowing that 8520 would be out of hands for about a week. So, I jump straight to the acceptance phase. Incidentally, we did some traveling that weekend and my mind got off the phone. When, at the end of the day, I would check my emails, tweets, blogs, etc, much was either not updated and if it was, not relevant at all. Now, not having received my phone even after a month just does not matter. Sure, I still need to see the news at lunch, tea time and just before leaving office. But that's normal. Trying to be the first one to read the news was not normal. Not being under a constant anxiety of being on top of the digital messaging deluge, was a huge relief, magically.

My family is happy to have me back. My son must have thought, as you must be too by now, that I "was nuts, but, whatever, buddy glad to see you without that black thingy clinging to your palm". I am glad to be back.

In the real sense of the term, I am more connected now than before.

PS: Some time back, I noticed an online chat between a husband and wife who were supposedly out for a dinner. They were instead chatting  about what they were noticing around them in the eatery; chatting (with tweets) over their mobile phones. You say crazy! I say toxic. Go detox.

Bad strike deal...common man does not endorse it

Today's Bharath Bandh costed India about 3 Billion USD. This is purely financial cost. I am not sure how FICCI arrived at this number, but, one can be sure that the number is in this range. Just divide India's expected GDP (about a Trillion USD) by the number of working days in a year. Chances are that given India umpteen number of local holidays, the daily GDP number might be bigger than what's quoted. Of course, the economic cost of a Bandh is far higher and difficult to measure.

Anyway, the Bandh has not given anything useful to the Common Man. Isn't it the Common Man for whom this Bandh was called? Sure. Then why did the opposition parties make life tough for the Common Man who just wanted to go to the hospital or tried get to the bank to get some work done on a lean day? More than 70 buses burnt, hundreds of flights canceled, hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded, expressways blocked, innumerable vehicles and even police tow-vans pelted and punctured. Whom has this helped? Some famous politicians got locked up. If there were a job fair, such antics would get these people extra stars on their resumes. They, after all, went to jail for the common man, didn't they? They can boast about it at the next election rally.

If rising prices (deregulation and all) of gas, fuel and consequently all commodities is what the perpetrators of Bandh care about, why don't these parties spend some time thinking how can they bring these prices down. e.g. in their own ruling states, can the opposition parties that called for this Bandh, not reduce state-level taxes and help the Common Man? Surely, there are no easy answers to this. But Bandh is also not an answer.

Did the Bandh help all those auto rickshaw and taxi drivers who lost a day's income? I personally know taxi drivers who work 18 hours a day so that they can own-out their cars faster (private branded service taxis with innovative liens/lease contracts). Auto drivers and the independent taxi fellows make less than 300-400 bucks a day after toiling for 12-14 hours. Did the Bandh help these people get more bread on their table?

A couple of night ago, I was at a take-away joint waiting for my order to be ready. It was pouring, with six inches of rainwater flowing on our street. I chatted up the paan-wallah outside the joint. He told me that his paan business is at the worst this time of the year. When it pours, no man comes out.; who will buy paan? He does not endorse this Bandh. (Who will buy paan or cigarettes if there is a Bandh? His paan rots.)

Our Bai's family runs a limited-variety vegetable shop. Her economics is changing. She was telling us that the current turn of events makes it easier on the pocket to eat chicken and mutton more often than vegetables. Nowadays, staple greens cost more than 80 bucks a kilo. Meat, therefore is relatively cheaper. But she fears that their shop's current stock would get spoiled in all the rain and humidity. They cannot risk buying more to stock up for Monday when there would be no supply in the day. Space in Mumbai... do I need to mention the premium it demands? She does not endorse this Bandh.

Point is that the Common Man is hassled by the price rise. Agreed. But he is coping. Political parties have arm twisted their constituents into following the formers' anti-establishment propaganda. Forcing a Bandh will make life tougher for the Common Man. What choice does a street vendor have when the CEO of a large media firm receives threats to ensure that his office building remains shut for Bharath Bandh? Surely, the vendors will keep their shops shut. This is misconstrued by the perpetrators as support for Bandh.

Coming to the main issue; Deregulation of fuel is exactly what we need now. We have been far too much pampered by the subsidised petrol and, especially, diesel. The opponent parties had, about nine years ago, proposed the deregulation of fuel that they are against today. About 35 years ago, through the leanest periods of Indian economy, fuel was completely deregulated. Why then, when we are doing well as an economy, are we fretting fuel deregulation? Keeping the diesel prices low for locomotives, trucks and rest of the transportation industry that uses it is one thing. Buying a second and a third car, diesel one, just because this fuel is available cheaper, has gone way too far. One of the immediate effects of the impending diesel price deregulation will be that people will start thinking about efficiency of their vehicles and their other modes of fuel consumption. The rest will follow.

During the recent wars and the more recent financial meltdown, even the world's biggest fuel guzzlers, the Americans, were brought down to their knees (free fuel pricing regime), trading in gas-guzzlers for fuel efficient cars, older cars for newer cars (Cash for clunkers) etc. Indians are a far more discerning lot(fingers crossed on whether it'll stay that way).

We will find a jugaad for the fuel price and other price hikes. But, bandh is bad.

Breakfast in Bengaluru; Dinner in Mumbai...

A few years back, if someone had said this, one would think that he is planning a day trip by air. With the Golden Quadrilateral in place, today, anyone one who drives down the distance on a car can make the same claim.

In planning for the return leg of our 12 day road trip, we had budget two days (daylight hours) to drive to Mumbai. Some suggested that we should halt at Belgaum, others said Kolhapur or Karad. These suggestions meant that it was assumed that the distance cannot be covered in a regular ‘day’ and that it is not safe (it still is not for many reasons) to drive at night. We also had a baby in tow and driver himself (me!) was expected to tire out by the time he covered about 700 km, professional driver as he is not.

For the record, I should state that I was underestimating my stamina, since I had in the past covered about 1996 miles (~3200 km) in a 96 hour round trip. But that was in the USA. Knowing the Indian road 700 km in a day seemed like a stretch. Obviously, I hadn't done much (or real) highway driving in India, in the last few years. Sure, the car you are driving also makes a lot of difference.

We set out at 6 AM sharp, in light drizzle, with the intent to make the most of daylight hours and cover the 700 KM in about 14 hours. This meant that we expected to do about 50 kmph in terms of real distance covered given the slowing, stopping, halting and simply trying to but not able to really overtake those cluster of trucks aching their way up ghats.

We drove comfortably, stopped to take pictures, lunch, drinks breaks and even a lay-bye power nap of 15 minutes. We were pretty happy that we reached Karad...but at 5:45 PM! At 61 kmph real speed, cruising mostly at 90 kmph, this is pretty neat. I am sure people with turbojet in their blood would be enthused by the prospect to make this distance in less than 10 hours; perilous as it may be. With a couple of hours of daylight still in sight, we drove on and reached Pune (880 KM) by 8:30 PM (same average even through a small stretch of ghat in 14.5 hours). Finally, we took another 2.5 hours to reach Mumbai (Pune-Mumbai on the expressway is another superb ride), yielding 1000 km in 17 hours. Late dinner in Mumbai meant that we actually saved a day on road. It is another matter that this upset my wife since she thinks I short-changed her by cutting short the vacation. (I know I will pay a price for this someday soon.)

Driving on NH4 is like jet skiing. As of this writing, NH4 is complete from Bengaluru through Pune barring a 15 km bye-pass of Ranebennur, which means you go through the town. One does not mind shelling out about 500 bucks in toll (they call it "road user fee") through the entire route. This segment of the Golden Quadrilateral is very well built and maintained. Some oddities remain- like people and animals crossing roads like they are walking in their backyard, but that’s a reality on every highway in India, no matter how wide or smooth it is and whether or not you pay toll.

The Mumbai-Pune expressway (alternative to NH4) is a wonderful exception to this rule. It is a great feeling driving through gargantuan tunnels (longest is about 1.5 km long) with three lanes and high ceilings, well lit in vibrant orange neon. In fact, watching three lanes of traffic zooming through tunnels in India is a first for me. Truck drivers need to yet learn how to use the Mumbai-Pune expressway. We saw at least five overturned trucks of all sizes- even 10-wheelers- belly-up on relatively sharp turns. Simply, they were just too fast and the guys probably ignored the warnings to slowing down. (There could be an arguable point about designing turns on expressways, but I will give engineers the benefit of doubt on this one)

It is not without reason that the entire NH4 (I am sure rest of GQ as well) carries frequently seen hoardings of the ruling Congress leaders. The GQ is indeed something to be proud of. It has phenomenal implications to the logistics, particularly, road transport industry. Fast road travel implies higher efficiency of transport vehicles; higher predictability through better planning; faster supply chains; development of storage and specialised infrastructure in ‘outer’ locations (where it would be cheaper) and overall economic savings. For personal travel as well, roads like GQ open up a safer option to travel by own cars (or bikes for those who prefer).

Bengaluru to Mumbai on road- all in a day’s work. Hadn’t thought of it that way, until yesterday.

Ode to a Road

[Inspired by NH17 Goa-Mangalore stretch on the current road trip.
Something was definitely right about this place this time of the year.]

As the mist fades away in reverence to the rising sun,
Shades of green tell on the annual rain-dance that's begun
With the green, not any green but a bright florescent glow,
Dark shades play with shadows of tall trees, in perfect flow

Large trucks rushing past the awakening village & town,
Get mocked by the bullock carts of wet hay light brown
Life begins asimple, on the clockwork of daily routine,
What you saw here yesterday, today's just the same scene

Coastal road this one, teases you with rare cliffs and the sea,
Taking scene away after just a glimpse, like unsure dance of a bee
Meandering road; colorful offshoots,some straight some cower,
Sprinkled among jack-fruit, mango and banyan, lies mayflower

Bedecked elephant cloaked in saffron, green and gold marches,
To the hill where he would bless the crowd by the temple arches
Dew drops fall on the windshield, in a splash, turning to stream,
Reminding me to not lose track of road, not lose my driving steam

As miles roll down under my wheels, each turn alive and fresh,
Brown earth on the shoulder changes color, zephyr becomes windy thresh
As I move down the ghats, gaining speed and swaying on the bends,
I think- this is real, I am here, with nature, there is no pretense

As morning recedes making way to forenoon, waiting crowds behold,
For carriers to take them to their place of work and their life's goals
Sun breaks through the clouds, makes schoolgirls open their shades,
In grey and pink pinafores, mayflowers in hand, such gleeful maids

Envious I become of the offices here, structures overlooking the sea
I work on a sixth floor by a window, but this is where I want work to be
For I have seen sights ante-monsoon; wet fields and blooming trees,
Cruising down this homely route, I have seen even a peacock fly by me

My eyes are fixed on the statue at a distance, rising above the waters,
Temple of the Destroyer, the tall tower, ode to His virtuous powers
As I drive away from the highway, into the little town by Arabian sea,
I wonder whether this coastal road is as beautiful as any road can be.

-MGP

Mongoose and snake

In the era of bite sized entertainment, 'byte sized' if you bring in the digital angle to it, shortness and sports are related at some level.

"Jesus wept" is the shortest verse in The Bible. The phrase, however, found its way into popular jargon when short skirts found their place in international tennis. The phrase now represents the phenomenon personified by Navratilova and her predecessors, Kournikova, Sherapova and their successors.

At another level of shortness, take cricket for example: from a 5-day-long affair to a day long version to the now as-long-as-a-movie format with T20, innovation in cricket has found for it new fans. Cricket has probably also recovered lost fans.

The information convergence led to competition, for the attention of the consumer, between traditional broadcasting media and the mobile & the Internet as media. And the consumer is increasingly drawn toward personalised entertainment. Anyone who has enjoyed the award winning video feeds on youtube (dispite all the garbage that people upload) and other video feeds can tell you why the Internet offers better quality (measured as better value per unit time?) over TV in general. Don't like NGC or Discovery channel in Hindi? Personalise it into English (or vice versa) with digital DTH. DTH is driven by technology, but consumerism (of it) is mixedly driven by need and affordability.

To apply this logic to sports, I think the race for quality content measured per unit time is another reason why shorter formats of games like cricket will revolutionize the way we consume sports-as-entertainment. You personalise the consumption of sports by chosing the format you like best.

A couple of days back, two new IPL team franchises were sold for almost 150% of the price paid for all eight original franchise teams three years back. It's like saying 'two for the price of ten'. Franchise owners know that the IPL wave has only touched the shores of Tier II cities. There is a lot of cricket ground waiting to be covered.

Talking of shortness, the quintessential cricket bat has become shorter!!! "Mongoose" is deemed to become the latest innovation in cricket. Named eponymously for the animal's ferocity, the new bat is 44% shorter on the body, compensated in weight by thickness and in length by a longer handle. Like one cricket commentator was saying, the bat in Mathew Hayden's hands looks more like a club than a bat. And clobbering Hayden did demonstrate a couple of matches ago. Mongoose helped run the meter fast!

If the the five day version of the game is the snake and the T20 version the Mongoose, who will win this match? The match, you can bet, will be much longer than an evening with IPL.

On public etiquette and sycophancy

Breakneck traffic on hardly busy suburban roads, Honda Civics brushing past caravans of pedal-rickshaws, traffic quasi-police trying in vain to control the flow of automobiles and an off-duty policeman without a helmet trying to cross the road even while the mainstream traffic cruised along... these are what I observed in the first ten minutes in the land of chikan and 'pehle aap - tehzeeb' (etiquette of 'you first').

But the most striking thing was that the city was aglow with blue colored lighting, blue colored cloth hoardings, large posters bearing photographs and symbols of the governing party politicians. Whizzing past statue after statue of the chief minister and mentors of the political party, I could not but wonder how much money was being spent on this mega-celebration. Then we drove past the planned venue for the gala anniversary event where more than a hundred thousand people were expected to assemble in a couple of days. But it appeared as if all the police jeeps in the city had already found parking around the locale.

My driver explained in a careful tone how the administration is spending 'araboan rupayeh' (unimaginably high amount of money) for an anniversary. While farmers and students outside the city make do with just a few hours of power everyday, the city casts a blue stamp in the sky for the passing satellite.

There was one conspicuous stretch of road though that bore absolutely no lighting. Nothing else changed- smooth as glass tarmac, neatly painted traffic-lanes, manicured divider and dedicated, separated pedestrian and bicycle tracks. The stretch was dark with no street lights of any type. The ensuing explanation of the anomaly told me about how politicians' egos function in complete isolation from public safety norms. The particular stretch of road was apparently the dream project the former chief minister. The project having been a success and the current administration being at constant loggerheads with the former, the latter chose to downplay the success of the road by knocking out all lights. Who would dare cross the road here?

Three days hence, we now know that fifty million dollars were spent and a garland made of currency notes worth a million dollars was presented to the chief of the party. Where the money came from is altogether a different question and for the CAG of India to worry. In a state where the number of people living below poverty line is one of the highest in the country, this amount of money given to them, in kind -food and shelter even- would have had a colossal impact on thousands of lives. If caste politics is the name of the game, fine, the party could have still distributed the money to their own voters if no one else. Even that, biased it may have been, would have still served a social cause.

Do the people from the, historically, economically disadvantaged factions, whose cause the party claims to champion and who voted this party to power, wonder why their chosen one did not make better use of the money? Or did they admire the pink garland of grands, thinking all the while that it looked so big and so pretty it befitted a white elephant?

A million dollar currency garland and a fifty million dollar gala is bad public tehzeeb for any leader in any land.

Recalling brand stories

Brands are like friends, good friends are honest and don't let friends down. This is, in brief, one of the points that Professor Abraham Koshy (
Read Profile ) made in his recent article on ET(Read Here).

Maruti-Suzuki A-Star's is an apt caselet for brand crisis prevention. Maruti-Suzuki's major, even if not the first, recall highlights the sea change in how Indian producers treat their consumers.

But when did Indian brands, let's say specifically, Indian automobile brands become good friends of the consumer?

One of the key effects of our open market economy in automobile industry is that Indian players are no more taking consumers for granted. Faced with powerful peers who are quality conscious, responsible and honest, Indian producers have learned that for them "it 's the right way, or the highway". It was also probably the oft blamed Indian 'chalta hai' attitude coupled with the existence of seller's market for a long time, that had led to manufacturers' propensity to ignore issues that bothered consumers.

In 1999, I purchased Enfield's first aluminium-engine bike called Machismo A350. The bike suffered from noisy valves that chattered wildly. But Enfield did nothing despite complaints and the bike failed miserably. New avatars of the bike emerged a couple of years later, but many were left holding lemons.

Then, take for example, Bajaj Chetak's famous 'tilting of the scooter' trick. Unless the scooter was tilted at a difficult angle, known only to an owner, the fuel wouldn't start flowing. I remember seeing this growing up in the '80s, when scooters ruled, as well as in the mid 2000s, when aerodynamic bikes whizzed past the humble scooter. Everyone knew it was a fuel problem (you did not see it in other scooters, by the way). But Bajaj did nothing, apparently, to fix the problem for 20 odd years. I guess after some time the tilting became an ownership statement, a romantic one at that. And Bajaj could probably get away because of the strong heritage value. A Bajaj scooter offered mass consumer value on which India rode for a few generations.

But at some point in time between the 90s and early 2000s two things overtook the Bajaj scooter phenomenon. First, were the Bajaj bikes, which themselves were a response to the flood of 100 cc bikes that, to name the pioneers, Hero Honda and TVS Suzukis had caused. The second was the shifting consumer preference. Who cared for a technologically stagnant product when there were so many options available? Pick up any auto magazine and see how many pages the bikes table, already written in small sized font, runs into. So, is this one of the reasons why the Bajaj scooter was put to rest?

Today, however, it is the buyer's market. Consumerism, aided by information-empowerment in the background of open competition has helped clean up the manufacturer's act and enabled consumer to 'unfriend' the brands she cannot trust.

In Mumbai, there's lot of drama...(Part 2)

(Continued from here)

Scene#1 Take#2:

It's late on a Saturday winter afternoon in a winterless Mumbai. It is very crowded today as I drive from one point in the suburbs to another. 'When isn't it crowded?' are my thoughts as I pull into a traffic light. Trance is playing on my car music system just as I notice that I am surrounded by autorickshaws.

A face peers out of the auto stopped to my immediate right. The sweet looking girl gestures me to roll down my car window. And I think, 'Don't I know this girl? I am dreaming? This has happened to me before. Is this deja vu?' Mind races back to the last time this scene was played out. Four months back, rainy night, traffic, same gestures... 'Oh, I know what is coming. Damn...my instincts were on the dot! I am glad I did not fall for that trick last time',are my thoughts as I cut the music and roll down the window.

Looks can be deceptive. But I feel a little proud for having judged it right the first time around. I need to get this girl to understand that she cannot get away with it all the time. A meek 'Sorry!' wouldn't have the punch. I need to say it like she cannot forget it for some time. But, I cannot make a scene. If a guy shouts at a stranger-woman (by now, all the sweetness about her has metamorphosed into wiliness) who is asking for help, those around you will likely trash you verbally, or physically, before listening to your story. Then there will be lot of honking from those behind me who are not interested in seeing where this goes. The inanity of the potential chaos makes me think we'll settle it the simple way. I only need to get a point across.

So, by the time she says it, I am saying it in my mind, smile on my face 'Sir, can you please do me a favour?'. My smile widens, as I lift up my index finger and say ' Ma'am, I know what you are going to say. But you have asked me for this favour once before, remember?'. I think she does not recognize me. But, I am sure that she knows that I know. She knows that she has slipped this time. She also probably cannot believe that she has tried to trick the same guy twice. What are the odds, isn't it? There are some things money can buy, but the look on her face was priceless.

Anyway, I am glad I had recognized that confident delivery of the request the first time around. I see that confidence again, when she recovers her poise and with sufficient stoicism, responds with 'OK' and then withdraws into the auto rickshaw.


(To be continued)

In Mumbai, there's lots of drama...(Part 1)

Called by many names, Mumbai, as a film city, ensnares people's imagination like no other. Does life mimic cinema or cinema mimic life here? In the continuum of what imitates what, the answer must lie only somewhere at the center. You'll find all flavours of life on the street -romance, fantasy, adultery, violence, deceit, drama, comedy etc- as long as you care to step back and observe. When the regular Mumbaikar cannot escape the real virtuality of the city, how can a simple guy like me? Here's are a few scenes from my life in the past few months...

Scene#1 Take#1:

It's late on a rainy evening of an otherwise quiet Saturday. You might have noticed that when it has been drizzling continuously, things kind of quieten down. I am driving alone from one point in the suburbs to another, cutting across several busy junctions. Now, I am stuck at the same signal for the third time that the light changes back to red.

Just as I am cursing the traffic congestion, the autorickshaw that was , directionally speaking, hanging around my five o'clock pulls ahead to my one o'clock. A sweet face of a girl in her early twenties or late teens cranes out of the auto. Her hand gestures to me to roll down my car window. As I see her eyelashes blinking away rain drops, I wonder whether she is looking for directions. But she is in an auto and usually, it is me that goes to an auto for directions, not the other way round. Anyway, my car window hisses halfway down and I wait for her to speak.

She says,in perfect English, "Sir, can you please do me a favour?" I am all the more unsure about what to expect now. "Sir, I do not have money to pay to this autorishaw guy. Can you please give me 80 Rupees?" My mind races. Something is not right about this scenario. Her sweet voice wants me to believe this is a genuine request. Her immaculate private school educated accent tells me she must be coming from at least a middle class home. I cannot make out what she is wearing, but, someone in her position, I assume, must have a cellphone. Even if she does not have one, why doesn't she wait till she reaches her destination and arrange for money with whomever she is meeting? Maybe, she is even going home now. Either way, asking money, publicly, from a stranger, is not a smart thing to do in my opinion. Doing so exposes her vulnerability. Why is she asking me then?

A couple or three seconds pass as I consider all this. My thoughts are interrupted by her voice again, "Sir?". I have to decide whether I want to dig into my pocket or not. Would it be OK to not give her the money? 'Come on fast', I think. I go with my instincts and decide that the straight face and the confidence with which she delivered her request tells me that she is used to making such requests. Maybe she is just wanting to bill her ride on a stranger willing to help. Circumstances do not seem to be dire. So, I just shake my head and say "I am sorry!" and roll up my window. Her face disappears into the auto and I look around to check whether the light has changed. It has not.

In the background of raindrops falling on my car roof, I think about whether I did the right thing. She did seem sweet, after all.


(To be continued)

No Discounting New Year's Eve

The Christmas to new year's week is usually filled with tension among those who want to put it on sale and those who come to buy it. On one hand are those willing to start their new year with a bang. They will shop till the ball drops. On the other, there are those who want bang for their buck. Bargain hunters will make sure they start the new year with 'new everything' with nothing more than a pinch on their wallet. Then there are those who will, each year, shop one last time before they step into the new year with a resolution to stop splurging altogether. The malls have something for all categories.

The weird thing, though, is if you want to stay at home on the new year's eve, you will not get an offer in just the right places. I was asked to register and sign up for promotions before I could access the downloadable coupons from a couple of top pizza houses in the country. And when I did download them, the fine print did not help my appetite- "This offer is not valid on 31-Dec-2009!" I am trying to recall if this is the case in the United States too. I guess they have special discounts on the turn of the year. Is it because the same chains in India think people here are less imaginative on new year's and would order more pizzas no matter what? Why then pass the opportunity to fill the orders, at full price, from home parties?

Hearing about New year's eve parties is one of the traditional catching up activities you do in the first week. After the first week, it's as boring as talking about last year! Anyway, as you'd have guessed ours was a 'nice' one at home. Sit at home, play with our son and order pizzas at full price; no offers! Don't get me wrong, for a bargain hunter is not really about money. Just like for a kleptomaniac, it is not about the item. Think bigger, it is a middle class value; more like a value game.

But for many the eve went better than they expected it to. For some it almost did. Here are some stories I heard...

One of my colleagues regretted that she and her husband could not go to Goa to one of the progressive trance parties where they ring every new year in. Later, on learning that, this year, the place got busted with a lot of drugs on site they thought it was a good sign of times to come.

Another colleague ushered new year in a resort and for unknown reasons (he thinks it is a case of mistaken identity), he and his wife received more than their share of hospitality. They could not believe their luck when they received as gift a 'three days all expenses covered package at a beach resort'. It was given as a reward for their loyal patronage. But, this was the first time the couple had even been to the city. Would you call that lucky start or what?

You have reason to be happy when you have free couples pass to, I was told, one of the coolest places to be in Mumbai. Named after an exotic amphibian, the place charges a high fee for its new year's party. If all a guy has, to take to the party, is another male friend, then he does not want to use the pass as a couples pass, lest he send out all the wrong signals. So, he should feel luckier that he gets two free passes to cover both the stags. Economically, as one colleague pointed out, this is a loss to a potential couple who could have instead gone free to the party with those two half unused passe. Anyway, this guy lands up and finds himself among TV celebrities and really cool crowd. Or hot crowd as he later corrected himself.

Having the time of his life, he lands up at the bar next to an attractive woman (his description was much risqué). Adrenalin and new years spirits propel him to ask her, harmlessly, if she would like to dance with him. He, however, is faced with the dilemma of answering the question- "How much will you pay me?" Got to give it to the honesty of the guy, unfazed, he replies "What are the standard rates at a place like this? I am new here." 'I charge twenty five thousand' pat comes the reply. Still maintaining his presence of mind and also trying some fishing, if not getting some more free airtime as well as taking a big risk on his reputation or judgement on class (But, no mincing words in Mumbai, they say) he says 'Isn't that a little too high even for today?'. Looks like this woman is ready for anything, she says 'For you I will give a 10% discount!'. That response, to me was simply Manoj T Shyamalan-esqe unanticipated. Tell me if you hear a better one than that in all of 2010!

Like I said, if you are into buying something, there is someone selling it for a discount on new years. Unfortunately, that does not seem to be the case with pizzas delivered home on New Year's eve.

Flights of fantasy (Sarvé janaahaa Sukhoi-no bhavanthu)

'Now, wouldn't I like to be the president of India?' was the first thought that came to my mind when I heard our president had completed her first sub-sonic sortie. Atleast, then, I would get to fly in a Sukhoi and tick one of the hundred things to do before I die. Not even those who spend a lifetime in the Air Force get a chance like this.

But, what was the president doing in a Sukhoi in the first place? Is this the 21st century version of the traditional guard of honour inspection? May be it is one of the perks of being a president in a non-federal democracy. I am sure the prez plays a key role of upholding the constitutional processes, but, unless there is an emergency, the president does not need to pull any rabbits out of their hat. So, what do you do after you have settled down in your job? Scale new heights...literally?

But really, what was the motive behind riding a Sukhoi? It could not be a political statement (except help raise Left's eyebrows), no sir. Once in office, our president hardly need make any political manoeuvers unless instigated by a drastic turn of events- man made or otherwise. Officially, there is no obligation to prove geriatric fitness for aeronautical worklife. Maybe there is such a thing as first ladies' and gents' club out there that I am not aware of that is trying to set precedents for presidents.

At the end of the sortie, the president clarified that while she is (now, all the more) confident that women can do it (a Sukhoi-esque task), she would rather the government sorted out the moral and social feasibility of letting women into active fighter-jet airtime combat duty. From what I gathered from an ex-army lady, most countries, India included, are not there yet. So, it could not be about encouraging women into the armed forces, could it? If it is, then it is pretty expensive advertisement.

What could the common man be thinking? While we are blown away by our president's gutsiness, are masses thinking whether they will get blown away to bits in an act of alien cowardice. While lucky officials relish unusually fantastic funflights, do masses wonder where the next meal will come from, will their hut survive the next floods or their fields the next drought? Does the middle class wonder whether Earth is turning lunar the way potholes on roads expand and vehicles jump over metro construction debris as if locomoting in 1/6th gravity? What are all those cabinet ministers, MPs and MLAs thinking about the austerity measures government was insisting upon, oh so loudly, just weeks ago? May be they think they should tweet more often?

At an individual level, there is awe, respect and some green eye here. But seriously, what was the president doing in a Sukhoi? The president, having conquered the G-forces now wishes to break the sound barrier. I hope the voice of concern of the masses reaches the president's ears at the speed of sound.

"Confusious (sic) say: President that break sound barrier, going too fast for its people"

Up and down in Mumbai

Mumbai, the big city of India, teaches you something new every day. The last six weeks have been full of hopes rising up and hopes falling down, traveling up and down, moving up and down and looking up and down.

For the most part of last three weeks, the small talk has revolved around the delayed onset of monsoons. Wiping beads of sweat off their foreheads, people glance up at the sky and shake their heads down in disbelief that rains have beaten them in to the sultry mid-summer. Kids though too happy to go back to school, also probably wonder when it will be called off for a day or two when the waters enshroud the roads and bring productivity of the city down.

My second day in Mumbai was spent learning firsthand the vicissitudes of life on a ‘local’. My local batch mates from IIMA-PGPX had planned a meeting, it so happened, on the day after I landed here. Living with a few relatives until I moved into the company guest house, I was left to figure out how I could negotiate the forty kilometer distance from uptown Borivali to downtown Colaba. The first evening I watched trains at Borivali station cough out people in a hurry and suck in people in a hurry. Two and a half decades back, as a kid, watching trains was apparently an obsession with me. After work, my parents would take me to the nearest level crossing where we would watch trains until they got bored or I stopped jumping with joy, or both. Watching what was going on in the Mumbai local station did not bring up any of those fond memories. Anyway, I had a task to do the next day and my wife’s cousin and uncle had one of their own that day. They had to ensure that their esteemed (tch! tch!) relative was well taken care of and trained enough to travel safely up and down the busy chest of the big city. The next day, while I had no problem getting to Churchgate, on the way back, I learned not to underestimate statements made with respect to the local. I had been warned 'let the Virar local go, you have to take the Borivali local'. But, I thought that warning was too much to be taken seriously at midnight. The Virar passengers take it to their heart that someone would take a Virar local to Borivali when the latter has a train all to itself, last stop Borivali. And they showed this to me the hard way. The carriage full of people standing on each other’s feet, would only allow people in and refused to let me out. (Stepping out and into locals is not how it works in India's city that never sleeps) Jumping out of a train slowing gathering speed, I learned it is never too late (read as never too restful) on a Mumbai local, time of the night notwithstanding.

Lifts, the ones that take you up and down, of all kinds is another thing that one needs to get used to in the Big Apple of India. Tall buildings are not built to impress; they are built to sustain. Sustain the ever growing population of the city that shelters (or not) the fourteen million aspirants and the arrived. But unlike many other cities, Mumbai had learnt many decades ago that it needed high rises. Hence, the variety of lifts in the variety of buildings. The modern one in our office is not always as predictable as the old collapsible-grill kind in the guest house building. The former, though computerized (ahem!) has a mind of its own. Back at the guest house, one has to remember that the lift is not automatic. And this learning did not come to me automatically. One evening, a bunch of kids rushed in shouting ‘wait, lift, uncle, wait’ (or was it ‘wait, lift-uncle, wait’?). I smiled and opened the door. The little people took over the charge of lift operations. They pressed some number and I said ‘Six please’. The little girl did not respond. So, I looked down at her and said ‘Six please’. A little irritated, she looked up at me and said ‘Uncle, this is not automatic. You press Six after we go out’.

Like I said, Mumbai (small or big) teaches you something every day.

"The truth comes out when growth stops"

It was quite remarkable (yet sad) that just at the start of the fourth class of our course on Corporate Governance -where we were to discuss the article "Directors' new clothes"- the story 'Raju admits fraud' broke. Even before the course started, we were assured by the professor that the Maytas-Satyam fiasco would be a case study in action. Little did we imagine that bigger waves were travelling in our direction. As our professor tagged it, this is nothing short of a "Corporate Tsunami".

Read Raju's 'confession' here

While a rather sad one given the magnitude of the situation- impacting about 50000 employees and hundreds of thousands of retail shareholders, reputation of the offshoring industry at large etc- this is as real time as a case study discussion can get. While learning the processes of the board of directors, it is difficult to believe Raju's claim that no one in the board had a hold on the financial statements. What was the audit committee doing?

The revelations include an overstatement of cash on balance sheets of more than a billion and a half dollars. It should to be noted is that it was cash that was overstated. It is befuddling that they could manage to do that for several years.

Quoting our professor- 'Truth has to come out when growth stops' one must recognise the weight of this statement. Driven by short term growth targets, there is a small (or large?) component of 'catching up with your claims'. In the sense that you provide guidance based on projected growth. You show accrued income based on trust that remittances will follow. But at some points if your financials had reached a level of fiction that is unrecoverable, you have to start losing the chasing game and, then, when the flow of cash depletes as would happen in a slowdown, the litmus changes colors.

While facts ought to follow soon, there is very little left to imagine whether the company could have done this without the support of the auditors.Two-thirds of the assets (cash) never existed? How can you drag that on for years? What were the auditors (a big one too) thinking while passing the quarterly reports? What about bankers who would no doubt be carrying Satyam's annual reports under their pillows?

The showdown has just begun when it comes to India Inc taking a beating on credibility and corporate reputation. While it is true that this could have happened to any company in India, it has happened to one in the IT industry. Barring few notable exceptions in conglomerates in traditional business, largely IT companies were supposed to be largely clean and transparent. This perception comes from the fact that IT companies dealing with US companies or listed in the US need to adhere to SEC requirements and regulatory standards. Additionally, the company had won Golden Peacock in the recent past. Obviously, this again proves that awards do not build public trust and corporate reputation but a past track record of responsible action does.

Is there a systemic issue in how audits are conducted? As SG, one of our classmates, asked of the professor- Given US has failed to put an airtight seal on financial failures, does India have the wherewithal to implement checks and balances in place to avoid such incidents in the future?

What about the risk to Indian outsourcing industry? Given that this question is raised, what will the Government of India do, as in really do about the irregularities in the system?

PS: This is also a test for the logic of 'Wisdom of the crowds'. Some companies (including midcap) whose numbers growth, in the past, have run into public suspicion radar are already being dumped by investors. In the last few hours, each of these companies' stocks have lost about 25%. So, is the market always right? Are there more skeletons in the cupboard waiting to roll out?

Where is the pulp?

"Where's the pulp? Where's the pulp?" goes the tag line of a fruit drink being popularised, of late. Replace "pulp" with money or even 'reason' and you will know why markets should not rise in the near to medium term. By this, I mean that Sensex will probably not see sustained 17000 to 20000 levels in the next 8-12 months. As of last trading day, the Sensex closed a couple of hundred points below 16000.

Here's why:

1. Technically, at 16000, Sensex has a P/E of about 20, down from 28 at the start of year when record 21000 was breached. Analysts point out that P/E of 15-16 too is justifiable. This means that there is room for bottoming down. This is supported by the fact that 60% of the scrips constituting the Sensex are still trading at a P/E higher than their average 4-year P/E. It may mean they have room for rationalisation.

2. The FM has revised down the projected GDP growth for FY'09 from 'above 9%' to 'above 8%'. Analysts only expect 'more than 7%'.

3. Manufacturing sector has shown negative growth. Down to 5.3% this year, the growth the government says will be close to 11% next year. But there is a big slowdown cloud hanging over that. Given rising cost of imports, at a micro level, profitability will no doubt be impacted.

4. Agricultural output has not stirred any positive emotions while no new provision has been made for prodding agricultural growth. The 60K Cr waiver is not favourable to many or all, but that's another story by itself and it will not put an end to farmer suicides. For FY'08, a recent report forecasted a mere 0.9% growth in food grain output, down from 4.2% last year.

5. The Indian banking sector has only started to publicize its exposure to sub-prime funds.

6. IT sector is still trying to figure out what to make of the recession. But see no upward revision of guidance this year. The Rising Rupee, increase in direct costs and forecasted shortage of talent have already knocked off close to 30% in blue chip stocks. The end of tax holiday in the near future will only squeeze profitability. The flag bearer of 9% growth, services, will be marching only slower.

7. Inflation is rising higher. Already at a 9 month high of 5.11%, this time driven by rising costs (imports), it will be increasingly difficult to sustain operational margins.

8. Rising oil prices will continue to put pressure for an upward revision of petrol and diesel prices in India. But following the recent populist budget, the upward revision would not come by easily. Simply put, it would be an aberration to populist tendencies in preparation for the General Elections. So, oil companies will continue to show deep reds in their books.

9. Infrastructure is not doing that great. Look at the "good for nothing as of now" two 'swank' airports with national records of longest and tallest etc records to their names. Big airports, one already inaugurated, with no way to get to them.Their official launch has been postponed now. Each is an example of priorities that our 'leaders' have. Call the cause technical or political, the impact is economical.

10. Impending general elections may mean no path breaking reforms to bootstrap the above will be taken up now.

In the light of all these, FIIs, especially, hit hard on earnings in the sub-prime era may show faltering confidence, overall, in the current domestic economic scene. The sheen of India Shining episode is getting dulled down by lackluster or almost stalled reforms process.
What about Retail investors? Well, that category of traders or investors has not been driving the index. The recent IPOs have not done well and the market has all but tanked out and is bobbing up and down on a weekly basis. This gives no confidence to a retail investor. They will at best be cautious in putting their money in direct equity.

So, w.h.e.r.e. i.s. t.h.e. p.u.l.p?

Why we like Udayan Mukherjee:

Those who watch CNBC-TV18's 'India Business Hour' and 'Business Center' at dinner time, need no introduction to this smart face (Executive Editor) of the channel.

There have been times when I have thought Udayan Mukherjee (UM) is a super cool dude and times when I have also thought he is self righteous, but never condescending. Well, I am no great judge of people when a one way interaction happens over the Tube and the interaction is scripted and recorded. UM has the mannerisms of a seer, if I may say so. He speaks slowly in a way that the message is understood correctly, chooses his words carefully and during talk shows and interviews, UM is also very patient and under time constraints waits for the point be made by the other party. He displays the depth of analysis, insight and a lot of homework he would have needed and done before meeting the interviewee, a business honcho in most cases. He does not juggle around with jargon, any more than that needed to convey the technicals. Even so much sometimes flies over my head, but that's mea culpa, not the speaker's.

When you see the carpet of security get pulled out from under your feet, you need to understand from someone reliable, why it is happening. I may be exaggerating about the security part, but there is no doubt that I jumped up from my seat when I saw, in my portfolio, the 'blacks' becoming smaller and the 'reds' becoming deeper. Traders worry, investors don't; at least this one doesn't. Fundamental and blue chip investment is a 'horse for a long race', as they say in Indian parlance.

Yesterday, when the bloodbath happened in the markets, I was waiting for UM to speak out. UM said little yesterday about why of it, except the technicals of margin trading causing a bulk of the loss yesterday. Quite understandably, global cues from Dow and Nasdaq were missing, it being a weekend in The States. The cues would be missing today too, Monday being a holiday there. But, later today, surely the US would not go against a global wave of dipping indices?

In India, however, it was another day altogether. Cues from the eastern markets and the growing sense of uneasiness of the (already here? impending?) recession in the US economy and panic selling triggered by yesterday's losses, especially by those with muscle and those with short positions induced heavy selling, leading to the circuit breaking within a couple of minutes of the session opening. Many a fist has been wrung into the palm, many a tear shed and many a brow wiped by millions today. In the second half of a record smashing trading day, Bulls turned around the multitudes of 52-week lows and put brakws on the downslide , pulling the index up from, about -13% to -4.5%. If only, I were more liquid at this point in time, I myself might have added a nickel or two more.

It is at a time like this that one needs to drive home a simple message. One that this more of a reminder of a simple truth than a brainwave. Because it's "Just that our memories tend to be too short and our greed too much." (quoting the last line of UM's article today).Read here, UM's message today.
This article is one of several reasons why we like Udayan Mukherjee.

Nano-voce-philia: Defined as...

...love of talking about Nano!

I am not a fanatic for the car per se but am for the principle behind it, for the alternatives Nano provides (still saying that it will be a big hot potato to swallow), the fundamentals it will change, utilitarian concept it embodies and frugal manufacturing technology it testifies. But for the record, I must admit that despite my fears about Nano, Nano is all over my mind. Nano is having an 'in your face' effect on me.

Nano is bound to change our lives and the signs are already showing. Here are some samples.

A recent article in the newspaper prophesied about the peripheral,in several meanings of the word,industries that will flourish in the shadow of Nano. Will not cheap (economical) accessories well embellish a cheap car? It also took a shot at how our conversations and attitudes and jargon would change to accommodate the shifts in paradigms that Nano would trigger. You might say I am progressively becoming a Nano-voce-philic (For good or bad, such people as yours truly like talking about Nano!). Now that is a word I made up. Is there a "Nano" word for someone who makes up Nano words? Nana-verbo-philic, perhaps? If you are getting the hang of it and think I am getting carried away, I have made my point.

If the masses get their bread should the 'nouveau' as well as the 'riche' not get their cakes? Dilip Chabbria has unveiled his impression of a car that could buy a hundred Nanos. Pegged at 1 crore, the rich man's space age answer to Nano will snub the masses with its antiNano philosphy. There in lies the irony: For the rich India, an answer to a frugal car is an extravagant car of similar dimensions with little else in common.

The irony also represents the socio-economic divide that has manifested in different forms in different cities. Be it the Bangalore-commons' quasi-despisal of those working in, literally, glass houses that are IT complexes. Opportunism, crime, harassment and verbal abuse against techies in Bangalore, Pune and other cities. It also shows up in the amplified pillage caused by mobs incited by any issue, the damage in which is mosty incommensurate to what one would expect in response(!) to the problem which triggered it in the first place.

Here is a more significant example of how Nano is raising its hydra-head even before it juggernauts onto the road ten months down the line. Read here about how Nano has upset another automobile manufacturer's grand plans. Electrotherm had a big idea of a small priced AutoRickshaw, but Nano would allow none of it. But as you would have read in the quoted article, ElectroTherm has plans of salvaging their project by converting the prototype into one that is electric and at the same time cheaper. Now, that is innovation driven by market forces. How often do we get witness that so closely and in the live?

We are in exciting times in India and, going by the international pulse, beyond. The show has just began. Nano has just entered the building.

PS: Now, would you call me a Nano-blogo-philic for that matter? Apologies to OUP for misusing the poetic license. For, officially, Oxford has done away with hyphenated words.