Today's Bharath Bandh costed India about 3 Billion USD. This is purely financial cost. I am not sure how FICCI arrived at this number, but, one can be sure that the number is in this range. Just divide India's expected GDP (about a Trillion USD) by the number of working days in a year. Chances are that given India umpteen number of local holidays, the daily GDP number might be bigger than what's quoted. Of course, the economic cost of a Bandh is far higher and difficult to measure.
Anyway, the Bandh has not given anything useful to the Common Man. Isn't it the Common Man for whom this Bandh was called? Sure. Then why did the opposition parties make life tough for the Common Man who just wanted to go to the hospital or tried get to the bank to get some work done on a lean day? More than 70 buses burnt, hundreds of flights canceled, hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded, expressways blocked, innumerable vehicles and even police tow-vans pelted and punctured. Whom has this helped? Some famous politicians got locked up. If there were a job fair, such antics would get these people extra stars on their resumes. They, after all, went to jail for the common man, didn't they? They can boast about it at the next election rally.
If rising prices (deregulation and all) of gas, fuel and consequently all commodities is what the perpetrators of Bandh care about, why don't these parties spend some time thinking how can they bring these prices down. e.g. in their own ruling states, can the opposition parties that called for this Bandh, not reduce state-level taxes and help the Common Man? Surely, there are no easy answers to this. But Bandh is also not an answer.
Did the Bandh help all those auto rickshaw and taxi drivers who lost a day's income? I personally know taxi drivers who work 18 hours a day so that they can own-out their cars faster (private branded service taxis with innovative liens/lease contracts). Auto drivers and the independent taxi fellows make less than 300-400 bucks a day after toiling for 12-14 hours. Did the Bandh help these people get more bread on their table?
A couple of night ago, I was at a take-away joint waiting for my order to be ready. It was pouring, with six inches of rainwater flowing on our street. I chatted up the paan-wallah outside the joint. He told me that his paan business is at the worst this time of the year. When it pours, no man comes out.; who will buy paan? He does not endorse this Bandh. (Who will buy paan or cigarettes if there is a Bandh? His paan rots.)
Our Bai's family runs a limited-variety vegetable shop. Her economics is changing. She was telling us that the current turn of events makes it easier on the pocket to eat chicken and mutton more often than vegetables. Nowadays, staple greens cost more than 80 bucks a kilo. Meat, therefore is relatively cheaper. But she fears that their shop's current stock would get spoiled in all the rain and humidity. They cannot risk buying more to stock up for Monday when there would be no supply in the day. Space in Mumbai... do I need to mention the premium it demands? She does not endorse this Bandh.
Point is that the Common Man is hassled by the price rise. Agreed. But he is coping. Political parties have arm twisted their constituents into following the formers' anti-establishment propaganda. Forcing a Bandh will make life tougher for the Common Man. What choice does a street vendor have when the CEO of a large media firm receives threats to ensure that his office building remains shut for Bharath Bandh? Surely, the vendors will keep their shops shut. This is misconstrued by the perpetrators as support for Bandh.
Coming to the main issue; Deregulation of fuel is exactly what we need now. We have been far too much pampered by the subsidised petrol and, especially, diesel. The opponent parties had, about nine years ago, proposed the deregulation of fuel that they are against today. About 35 years ago, through the leanest periods of Indian economy, fuel was completely deregulated. Why then, when we are doing well as an economy, are we fretting fuel deregulation? Keeping the diesel prices low for locomotives, trucks and rest of the transportation industry that uses it is one thing. Buying a second and a third car, diesel one, just because this fuel is available cheaper, has gone way too far. One of the immediate effects of the impending diesel price deregulation will be that people will start thinking about efficiency of their vehicles and their other modes of fuel consumption. The rest will follow.
During the recent wars and the more recent financial meltdown, even the world's biggest fuel guzzlers, the Americans, were brought down to their knees (free fuel pricing regime), trading in gas-guzzlers for fuel efficient cars, older cars for newer cars (Cash for clunkers) etc. Indians are a far more discerning lot(fingers crossed on whether it'll stay that way).
We will find a jugaad for the fuel price and other price hikes. But, bandh is bad.
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
2009-11-26
Flights of fantasy (Sarvé janaahaa Sukhoi-no bhavanthu)
'Now, wouldn't I like to be the president of India?' was the first thought that came to my mind when I heard our president had completed her first sub-sonic sortie. Atleast, then, I would get to fly in a Sukhoi and tick one of the hundred things to do before I die. Not even those who spend a lifetime in the Air Force get a chance like this.
But, what was the president doing in a Sukhoi in the first place? Is this the 21st century version of the traditional guard of honour inspection? May be it is one of the perks of being a president in a non-federal democracy. I am sure the prez plays a key role of upholding the constitutional processes, but, unless there is an emergency, the president does not need to pull any rabbits out of their hat. So, what do you do after you have settled down in your job? Scale new heights...literally?
But really, what was the motive behind riding a Sukhoi? It could not be a political statement (except help raise Left's eyebrows), no sir. Once in office, our president hardly need make any political manoeuvers unless instigated by a drastic turn of events- man made or otherwise. Officially, there is no obligation to prove geriatric fitness for aeronautical worklife. Maybe there is such a thing as first ladies' and gents' club out there that I am not aware of that is trying to set precedents for presidents.
At the end of the sortie, the president clarified that while she is (now, all the more) confident that women can do it (a Sukhoi-esque task), she would rather the government sorted out the moral and social feasibility of letting women into active fighter-jet airtime combat duty. From what I gathered from an ex-army lady, most countries, India included, are not there yet. So, it could not be about encouraging women into the armed forces, could it? If it is, then it is pretty expensive advertisement.
What could the common man be thinking? While we are blown away by our president's gutsiness, are masses thinking whether they will get blown away to bits in an act of alien cowardice. While lucky officials relish unusually fantastic funflights, do masses wonder where the next meal will come from, will their hut survive the next floods or their fields the next drought? Does the middle class wonder whether Earth is turning lunar the way potholes on roads expand and vehicles jump over metro construction debris as if locomoting in 1/6th gravity? What are all those cabinet ministers, MPs and MLAs thinking about the austerity measures government was insisting upon, oh so loudly, just weeks ago? May be they think they should tweet more often?
At an individual level, there is awe, respect and some green eye here. But seriously, what was the president doing in a Sukhoi? The president, having conquered the G-forces now wishes to break the sound barrier. I hope the voice of concern of the masses reaches the president's ears at the speed of sound.
"Confusious (sic) say: President that break sound barrier, going too fast for its people"
But, what was the president doing in a Sukhoi in the first place? Is this the 21st century version of the traditional guard of honour inspection? May be it is one of the perks of being a president in a non-federal democracy. I am sure the prez plays a key role of upholding the constitutional processes, but, unless there is an emergency, the president does not need to pull any rabbits out of their hat. So, what do you do after you have settled down in your job? Scale new heights...literally?
But really, what was the motive behind riding a Sukhoi? It could not be a political statement (except help raise Left's eyebrows), no sir. Once in office, our president hardly need make any political manoeuvers unless instigated by a drastic turn of events- man made or otherwise. Officially, there is no obligation to prove geriatric fitness for aeronautical worklife. Maybe there is such a thing as first ladies' and gents' club out there that I am not aware of that is trying to set precedents for presidents.
At the end of the sortie, the president clarified that while she is (now, all the more) confident that women can do it (a Sukhoi-esque task), she would rather the government sorted out the moral and social feasibility of letting women into active fighter-jet airtime combat duty. From what I gathered from an ex-army lady, most countries, India included, are not there yet. So, it could not be about encouraging women into the armed forces, could it? If it is, then it is pretty expensive advertisement.
What could the common man be thinking? While we are blown away by our president's gutsiness, are masses thinking whether they will get blown away to bits in an act of alien cowardice. While lucky officials relish unusually fantastic funflights, do masses wonder where the next meal will come from, will their hut survive the next floods or their fields the next drought? Does the middle class wonder whether Earth is turning lunar the way potholes on roads expand and vehicles jump over metro construction debris as if locomoting in 1/6th gravity? What are all those cabinet ministers, MPs and MLAs thinking about the austerity measures government was insisting upon, oh so loudly, just weeks ago? May be they think they should tweet more often?
At an individual level, there is awe, respect and some green eye here. But seriously, what was the president doing in a Sukhoi? The president, having conquered the G-forces now wishes to break the sound barrier. I hope the voice of concern of the masses reaches the president's ears at the speed of sound.
"Confusious (sic) say: President that break sound barrier, going too fast for its people"
2008-06-28
A country, a lecture, a performance.
The spell broke when my classmates started clapping and I joined in the applause. Today's 'open economy macroeconomics' class had just ended.
Evidently, thirty years before I was born had begun a reforms process in India that did not begin to fructify till around the time I had learnt to walk. Growing up, I had developed a vague sense of how the world and the world of business interacted and why it had not done well in the past and why the economy accelerated around the time when I was in high-school.The process continues, albeit with more steam, even as I come back to college after about a decade of corporate life.
While all this was happening, a set of events that several times shook a nation of a billion. There was another set of events that forced a country going in the wrong (in macroeconomics, right and wrong are opinions based on ideology) direction to do a u-turn, in the process starting an economic revolution that is only restrained by the attitude of the elected representatives and their affiliations to power and position (we get the governments we deserve? What must an economist feel if he knows what to do to correct the wrongs, but is tied down by 'the obligations of his position'? What's popular?) Overall, the events were influenced by 'who ruled independent India', what political inclinations they had, some things that are ingrained deep in a 3000 year old culture that is Hinduism, international power polarities and their subsequent realignment etc. There are several other factors that would seem superficial if explained in a hurry, but they all mattered.
In summary, today's lecture related some of the ideologies that have survived 200 years of political testing, 3000 years of cultural testing, responsibilities and constraints of central monetary authorities, 60 years of post-independence struggles, the interdependence of several macroeconomics factors that every government ought to strive to direct (with as much less interference and marginal cost as possible) with some of the known and unknown facts and political opinions that shaped India's daily life over the last six decades. Basically, everything that mattered to the development of the current fiscal and monetary policies was expertly framed in a lecture that was delivered like a story based on numbers and adjectives. The performance was spellbinding. I recall laughing out of professor's wit and admiring his rhetoric several times.
India got revealed between spoken words, a blackboard and insights of a scholar's mind. Seventy five minutes had passed by in a whiff. The cloud of my thoughts and opinions, though, had taken a definite concrete shape. Wow, so that was what they had been talking about all these years!
We have enjoyed several lectures and many more discussions. But on none of them had we conferred an applause, like as if at the end of a performance. This was a first.
I started clapping.
PS: The professor is a permanent faculty at IIMA. Among others, he has been playing the role of an expert adviser to the central government on some of the key initiatives rolled out in the recent past.
Evidently, thirty years before I was born had begun a reforms process in India that did not begin to fructify till around the time I had learnt to walk. Growing up, I had developed a vague sense of how the world and the world of business interacted and why it had not done well in the past and why the economy accelerated around the time when I was in high-school.The process continues, albeit with more steam, even as I come back to college after about a decade of corporate life.
While all this was happening, a set of events that several times shook a nation of a billion. There was another set of events that forced a country going in the wrong (in macroeconomics, right and wrong are opinions based on ideology) direction to do a u-turn, in the process starting an economic revolution that is only restrained by the attitude of the elected representatives and their affiliations to power and position (we get the governments we deserve? What must an economist feel if he knows what to do to correct the wrongs, but is tied down by 'the obligations of his position'? What's popular?) Overall, the events were influenced by 'who ruled independent India', what political inclinations they had, some things that are ingrained deep in a 3000 year old culture that is Hinduism, international power polarities and their subsequent realignment etc. There are several other factors that would seem superficial if explained in a hurry, but they all mattered.
In summary, today's lecture related some of the ideologies that have survived 200 years of political testing, 3000 years of cultural testing, responsibilities and constraints of central monetary authorities, 60 years of post-independence struggles, the interdependence of several macroeconomics factors that every government ought to strive to direct (with as much less interference and marginal cost as possible) with some of the known and unknown facts and political opinions that shaped India's daily life over the last six decades. Basically, everything that mattered to the development of the current fiscal and monetary policies was expertly framed in a lecture that was delivered like a story based on numbers and adjectives. The performance was spellbinding. I recall laughing out of professor's wit and admiring his rhetoric several times.
India got revealed between spoken words, a blackboard and insights of a scholar's mind. Seventy five minutes had passed by in a whiff. The cloud of my thoughts and opinions, though, had taken a definite concrete shape. Wow, so that was what they had been talking about all these years!
We have enjoyed several lectures and many more discussions. But on none of them had we conferred an applause, like as if at the end of a performance. This was a first.
I started clapping.
PS: The professor is a permanent faculty at IIMA. Among others, he has been playing the role of an expert adviser to the central government on some of the key initiatives rolled out in the recent past.
2008-03-21
A colorful Road Trip
A road trip typically combines the thrill of driving your own car through countryside and highways with the freshness of seeing rural and natural sights that one gets un-used to seeing in a city. In a road trip natural colors are easy to come by. Here are some colours of Karnataka that that we saw flying around us in the Ghats and along the coastline.
That the Western Ghats are green is common knowledge. The myriad shades of green shone by the tea gardens of Kalasa, Kudremukh and Samse, coffee plantations stretching from Sakleshpur to Mudigere and the sporadic deciduous and rare coniferous foliages sprouting out from deep red mountain soil remind you that tropical heaven is only a few hours drive away from home- the natural red and green.
Green is also the color of hope. The Shiradi Ghat road renovation project gives hope that the Mangalore Bangalore corridor will boost economic growth over the next decade more than what the recently inaugurated railway track will. The 9 inch thick tarmac starting Sakleshpur and the 1 foot thick concrete beams at the hairpin bends are being laid out with deliberation. Making no mistakes this time, the road has been closed to heavy traffic and opened to only controlled private car/light vehicular traffic.
The Greater Mangalore, if you may, area is poised to see amazing growth in the next few years. The infamous, for road accidents, NH17 belt going north from Mangalore is seeing new shades of grey- those of concrete and tarmac laid in the form of four-lane if not six-lane expressway complete with underpass and flyovers. The road will be made safe by itself. Left to man's fancies, however, nothing is safe.
All this, on top of the existing airway, railway will bootstrap the connectivity of the ports and upcoming SEZs with the hinterland. New SEZs for an energy company and several IT companies will lift this town from its tier 2 status to metro in the next decade.
That apart, the blue skies above and backwaters abutting the highway remind you that it is a little too unusual for rains to cause havoc in the evenings. What ought to be pink and blue- the two colors of spring- actually make you think black for the dark evening skies as well as the creeping impact of global warming. Forget that and the white sands of Maravanthe and the aquamarine waters of the sea beyond bring you right back to where we intended to spend one afternoon. Hot, you bet, and sultry worsened by last night's rain.
The legacy of the dynasties remnants of one of which, Hoysalas, we visited at Belur and Halebid ought to carry a bright orange glow. Orange is the color of endurance. That such intricate sculpture work has weathered nature and foreign invasions through the years is a testimony to capabilities and talents of a foregone era. The ornate pillars of the Chennakeshava temple, the hallmark of Hoysala architecture, is replete with the traditional jewellery designs that find their way into contemporary ornaments. The black polished pillars of the Jain Basadhi at Halebeedu even after close to a thousand years reflect the visitors' awestruck faces as if they were built yesterday. The musical notes that can be drawn out from the lightly constructed pillars strike the right chords of surprise.
Looking out for all these colors, we drove out of urban landscape on a Monday dawn, drove through the hinterland and ghats smelling coffee, tea, tender cashew, damp paddy and sugarcane fieldsdown to the hot coastal belt. We drank a lot of tender coconut, locally made carbonated jeera and ginger coolers sun-burned ourselves, sweated out in buckets, swallowed oodles of fresh air, woke up in the mornings to rare sounds of common birds, dug our heels in hot white sands, learned that Kudremukh National Park is replete with vistas of dark green and blue mountains against a pastel blue sky and also learned that exploration of Karnataka by road on our own car is the next best way to do it; the best way is on a bike such as an Enfield.
We returned four nights later content for now but thirsty for more, covering more than twelve hundred kilometers but not tired, intemittently cut off from communications like cell and email but not feeling any bad about it to the home-city happy but not too happy about it.
The colors we saw in this road trip are just a few sprinkles. There is a whole rainbow out there in Karnataka.
That the Western Ghats are green is common knowledge. The myriad shades of green shone by the tea gardens of Kalasa, Kudremukh and Samse, coffee plantations stretching from Sakleshpur to Mudigere and the sporadic deciduous and rare coniferous foliages sprouting out from deep red mountain soil remind you that tropical heaven is only a few hours drive away from home- the natural red and green.
Green is also the color of hope. The Shiradi Ghat road renovation project gives hope that the Mangalore Bangalore corridor will boost economic growth over the next decade more than what the recently inaugurated railway track will. The 9 inch thick tarmac starting Sakleshpur and the 1 foot thick concrete beams at the hairpin bends are being laid out with deliberation. Making no mistakes this time, the road has been closed to heavy traffic and opened to only controlled private car/light vehicular traffic.
The Greater Mangalore, if you may, area is poised to see amazing growth in the next few years. The infamous, for road accidents, NH17 belt going north from Mangalore is seeing new shades of grey- those of concrete and tarmac laid in the form of four-lane if not six-lane expressway complete with underpass and flyovers. The road will be made safe by itself. Left to man's fancies, however, nothing is safe.
All this, on top of the existing airway, railway will bootstrap the connectivity of the ports and upcoming SEZs with the hinterland. New SEZs for an energy company and several IT companies will lift this town from its tier 2 status to metro in the next decade.
That apart, the blue skies above and backwaters abutting the highway remind you that it is a little too unusual for rains to cause havoc in the evenings. What ought to be pink and blue- the two colors of spring- actually make you think black for the dark evening skies as well as the creeping impact of global warming. Forget that and the white sands of Maravanthe and the aquamarine waters of the sea beyond bring you right back to where we intended to spend one afternoon. Hot, you bet, and sultry worsened by last night's rain.
The legacy of the dynasties remnants of one of which, Hoysalas, we visited at Belur and Halebid ought to carry a bright orange glow. Orange is the color of endurance. That such intricate sculpture work has weathered nature and foreign invasions through the years is a testimony to capabilities and talents of a foregone era. The ornate pillars of the Chennakeshava temple, the hallmark of Hoysala architecture, is replete with the traditional jewellery designs that find their way into contemporary ornaments. The black polished pillars of the Jain Basadhi at Halebeedu even after close to a thousand years reflect the visitors' awestruck faces as if they were built yesterday. The musical notes that can be drawn out from the lightly constructed pillars strike the right chords of surprise.
Looking out for all these colors, we drove out of urban landscape on a Monday dawn, drove through the hinterland and ghats smelling coffee, tea, tender cashew, damp paddy and sugarcane fieldsdown to the hot coastal belt. We drank a lot of tender coconut, locally made carbonated jeera and ginger coolers sun-burned ourselves, sweated out in buckets, swallowed oodles of fresh air, woke up in the mornings to rare sounds of common birds, dug our heels in hot white sands, learned that Kudremukh National Park is replete with vistas of dark green and blue mountains against a pastel blue sky and also learned that exploration of Karnataka by road on our own car is the next best way to do it; the best way is on a bike such as an Enfield.
We returned four nights later content for now but thirsty for more, covering more than twelve hundred kilometers but not tired, intemittently cut off from communications like cell and email but not feeling any bad about it to the home-city happy but not too happy about it.
The colors we saw in this road trip are just a few sprinkles. There is a whole rainbow out there in Karnataka.
2008-03-15
Where is the pulp?
"Where's the pulp? Where's the pulp?" goes the tag line of a fruit drink being popularised, of late. Replace "pulp" with money or even 'reason' and you will know why markets should not rise in the near to medium term. By this, I mean that Sensex will probably not see sustained 17000 to 20000 levels in the next 8-12 months. As of last trading day, the Sensex closed a couple of hundred points below 16000.
Here's why:
1. Technically, at 16000, Sensex has a P/E of about 20, down from 28 at the start of year when record 21000 was breached. Analysts point out that P/E of 15-16 too is justifiable. This means that there is room for bottoming down. This is supported by the fact that 60% of the scrips constituting the Sensex are still trading at a P/E higher than their average 4-year P/E. It may mean they have room for rationalisation.
2. The FM has revised down the projected GDP growth for FY'09 from 'above 9%' to 'above 8%'. Analysts only expect 'more than 7%'.
3. Manufacturing sector has shown negative growth. Down to 5.3% this year, the growth the government says will be close to 11% next year. But there is a big slowdown cloud hanging over that. Given rising cost of imports, at a micro level, profitability will no doubt be impacted.
4. Agricultural output has not stirred any positive emotions while no new provision has been made for prodding agricultural growth. The 60K Cr waiver is not favourable to many or all, but that's another story by itself and it will not put an end to farmer suicides. For FY'08, a recent report forecasted a mere 0.9% growth in food grain output, down from 4.2% last year.
5. The Indian banking sector has only started to publicize its exposure to sub-prime funds.
6. IT sector is still trying to figure out what to make of the recession. But see no upward revision of guidance this year. The Rising Rupee, increase in direct costs and forecasted shortage of talent have already knocked off close to 30% in blue chip stocks. The end of tax holiday in the near future will only squeeze profitability. The flag bearer of 9% growth, services, will be marching only slower.
7. Inflation is rising higher. Already at a 9 month high of 5.11%, this time driven by rising costs (imports), it will be increasingly difficult to sustain operational margins.
8. Rising oil prices will continue to put pressure for an upward revision of petrol and diesel prices in India. But following the recent populist budget, the upward revision would not come by easily. Simply put, it would be an aberration to populist tendencies in preparation for the General Elections. So, oil companies will continue to show deep reds in their books.
9. Infrastructure is not doing that great. Look at the "good for nothing as of now" two 'swank' airports with national records of longest and tallest etc records to their names. Big airports, one already inaugurated, with no way to get to them.Their official launch has been postponed now. Each is an example of priorities that our 'leaders' have. Call the cause technical or political, the impact is economical.
10. Impending general elections may mean no path breaking reforms to bootstrap the above will be taken up now.
In the light of all these, FIIs, especially, hit hard on earnings in the sub-prime era may show faltering confidence, overall, in the current domestic economic scene. The sheen of India Shining episode is getting dulled down by lackluster or almost stalled reforms process.
What about Retail investors? Well, that category of traders or investors has not been driving the index. The recent IPOs have not done well and the market has all but tanked out and is bobbing up and down on a weekly basis. This gives no confidence to a retail investor. They will at best be cautious in putting their money in direct equity.
So, w.h.e.r.e. i.s. t.h.e. p.u.l.p?
Here's why:
1. Technically, at 16000, Sensex has a P/E of about 20, down from 28 at the start of year when record 21000 was breached. Analysts point out that P/E of 15-16 too is justifiable. This means that there is room for bottoming down. This is supported by the fact that 60% of the scrips constituting the Sensex are still trading at a P/E higher than their average 4-year P/E. It may mean they have room for rationalisation.
2. The FM has revised down the projected GDP growth for FY'09 from 'above 9%' to 'above 8%'. Analysts only expect 'more than 7%'.
3. Manufacturing sector has shown negative growth. Down to 5.3% this year, the growth the government says will be close to 11% next year. But there is a big slowdown cloud hanging over that. Given rising cost of imports, at a micro level, profitability will no doubt be impacted.
4. Agricultural output has not stirred any positive emotions while no new provision has been made for prodding agricultural growth. The 60K Cr waiver is not favourable to many or all, but that's another story by itself and it will not put an end to farmer suicides. For FY'08, a recent report forecasted a mere 0.9% growth in food grain output, down from 4.2% last year.
5. The Indian banking sector has only started to publicize its exposure to sub-prime funds.
6. IT sector is still trying to figure out what to make of the recession. But see no upward revision of guidance this year. The Rising Rupee, increase in direct costs and forecasted shortage of talent have already knocked off close to 30% in blue chip stocks. The end of tax holiday in the near future will only squeeze profitability. The flag bearer of 9% growth, services, will be marching only slower.
7. Inflation is rising higher. Already at a 9 month high of 5.11%, this time driven by rising costs (imports), it will be increasingly difficult to sustain operational margins.
8. Rising oil prices will continue to put pressure for an upward revision of petrol and diesel prices in India. But following the recent populist budget, the upward revision would not come by easily. Simply put, it would be an aberration to populist tendencies in preparation for the General Elections. So, oil companies will continue to show deep reds in their books.
9. Infrastructure is not doing that great. Look at the "good for nothing as of now" two 'swank' airports with national records of longest and tallest etc records to their names. Big airports, one already inaugurated, with no way to get to them.Their official launch has been postponed now. Each is an example of priorities that our 'leaders' have. Call the cause technical or political, the impact is economical.
10. Impending general elections may mean no path breaking reforms to bootstrap the above will be taken up now.
In the light of all these, FIIs, especially, hit hard on earnings in the sub-prime era may show faltering confidence, overall, in the current domestic economic scene. The sheen of India Shining episode is getting dulled down by lackluster or almost stalled reforms process.
What about Retail investors? Well, that category of traders or investors has not been driving the index. The recent IPOs have not done well and the market has all but tanked out and is bobbing up and down on a weekly basis. This gives no confidence to a retail investor. They will at best be cautious in putting their money in direct equity.
So, w.h.e.r.e. i.s. t.h.e. p.u.l.p?
2008-03-08
Next phase: A thousand suns
Well into my first week of 'officially' doing nothing, but otherwise doing a lot I can say I have discovered a few things. Foremost among them is the fact that Bangalore does not have that much traffic at all! Surprised? Even I was, because rarely, if ever at all, have I ventured into the heart of the city between 11 AM and 5 PM on a working day.THIS is the time, Bangalore has no traffic at all.
In the process of learning the ropes of Financial Reporting and Accounting from pre-course learning material, at least I have figured out the difference between Expense and Expenditure. Being a layman to the domain, I should say it is no less than a discovery, albeit a technical one.
One of the first things that hits me when I converse with people is my inability to say I work for so and so. A momentary lapse of identity is quickly replaced by the realisation of what it meant before and what it will mean in future.
My break, simply, has started in uncertain times. Overall, there is a lot of grimness about how the events will unfold in the next eighteen months. Indian Banks' revelation on exposure to Sub-Prime Funds, recession fears(? or!) stalking Indian and global markets have started a ebbing phase which will be sustained by impending elections in the US and carried over by elections in India. Bolstering the fears are falling industrial output in Indian manufacturing, sky rocketing oil and gold prices,5.1%-nine-month high Inflation rate in India, 0.6% fall in US retail spending and analyst opinions that US recession could muster enough rubble to match the recession of the twenties.Yesterday's Bear Stearns bailout story is just another nail in the coffin. This is going to be one long year if not a longer eighteen months.
So, while the next twelve months will test a lot of new waters,cause there is bound to be many a storm, on the personal front optimism is rife because behind the dark clouds are a thousand suns.
In the process of learning the ropes of Financial Reporting and Accounting from pre-course learning material, at least I have figured out the difference between Expense and Expenditure. Being a layman to the domain, I should say it is no less than a discovery, albeit a technical one.
One of the first things that hits me when I converse with people is my inability to say I work for so and so. A momentary lapse of identity is quickly replaced by the realisation of what it meant before and what it will mean in future.
My break, simply, has started in uncertain times. Overall, there is a lot of grimness about how the events will unfold in the next eighteen months. Indian Banks' revelation on exposure to Sub-Prime Funds, recession fears(? or!) stalking Indian and global markets have started a ebbing phase which will be sustained by impending elections in the US and carried over by elections in India. Bolstering the fears are falling industrial output in Indian manufacturing, sky rocketing oil and gold prices,5.1%-nine-month high Inflation rate in India, 0.6% fall in US retail spending and analyst opinions that US recession could muster enough rubble to match the recession of the twenties.Yesterday's Bear Stearns bailout story is just another nail in the coffin. This is going to be one long year if not a longer eighteen months.
So, while the next twelve months will test a lot of new waters,cause there is bound to be many a storm, on the personal front optimism is rife because behind the dark clouds are a thousand suns.
2008-02-07
Cables and wars
Idle minds or devil's workshops, whatever you may call ours, but there seems to be some value in our paranoia, after all.
Last week, a friend and I were discussing about the 'yet to be officially acknowledged,by Fed Bank, but already heating up' recession in the US economy when the topic turned to how, apparently, wars have been fought just to revive or jumpstart flagging economies. Naturally, the discussion then turned to what the "Economic Hit men", if you may, would do to counter the stagflation lurking at US shores. It is widely prophesied that the impact of US recession would be minimal or marginal on the growth of emerging economies such as India.
Now, there is theory that wars in future would be not physical ones but more of 'intelligence wars', not in the sense of espionage but intelligence as relates to information and telecom technology pillaring economies. It leads to less bloodshed and, apparently, has more impact toward hampering the sustenance of normalcy in the enemy territory. The Internet, in such cases not only becomes a potential war ground, but an Achilles ‘heel for some economies. It was but natural for us to concur that stagflation and multiple cable damages were too much coincidental.
As far as the internet or the web is concerned, all roads lead to Rome. So, if something big goes down, it will probably slow down the flow of information, but networking technology will sustain the flow (with all disclaimers that apply). Apparently, this logic does not so easily apply to the Suez Canal cables. We were unaware of the criticality of 'these' cables.But looks like were not paranoid for no reason.
Read an article here to understand more about the nature and impact cable damages and to, at least to our surprise, know that we were not just dreaming out loud. Phew!
Einstein's point to ponder: "I am not sure how the third world war will be fought. But I am quite sure that the fourth one will be fought with bows and arrows."
Last week, a friend and I were discussing about the 'yet to be officially acknowledged,by Fed Bank, but already heating up' recession in the US economy when the topic turned to how, apparently, wars have been fought just to revive or jumpstart flagging economies. Naturally, the discussion then turned to what the "Economic Hit men", if you may, would do to counter the stagflation lurking at US shores. It is widely prophesied that the impact of US recession would be minimal or marginal on the growth of emerging economies such as India.
Now, there is theory that wars in future would be not physical ones but more of 'intelligence wars', not in the sense of espionage but intelligence as relates to information and telecom technology pillaring economies. It leads to less bloodshed and, apparently, has more impact toward hampering the sustenance of normalcy in the enemy territory. The Internet, in such cases not only becomes a potential war ground, but an Achilles ‘heel for some economies. It was but natural for us to concur that stagflation and multiple cable damages were too much coincidental.
As far as the internet or the web is concerned, all roads lead to Rome. So, if something big goes down, it will probably slow down the flow of information, but networking technology will sustain the flow (with all disclaimers that apply). Apparently, this logic does not so easily apply to the Suez Canal cables. We were unaware of the criticality of 'these' cables.But looks like were not paranoid for no reason.
Read an article here to understand more about the nature and impact cable damages and to, at least to our surprise, know that we were not just dreaming out loud. Phew!
Einstein's point to ponder: "I am not sure how the third world war will be fought. But I am quite sure that the fourth one will be fought with bows and arrows."
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