2008-03-26

A pupil's progress

Five more days to do before I set out lock, stock and barrel to Ahmedabad. The three weeks I had taken off from work have resulted in part success. The aim of the break had been four fold - Relaxation, recreation,reading and regularisation. While I can say that I have made sufficient progress on the first two, the third is where it is in the list- lagging. The obscuring reference to regularisation is with regard to catching up on administrative tasks.

Right now, I think I am at the apex of a roller-coaster, the car is chugging its way to the highest peak. A few days from now, once we arrive at Ahmedabad, the car will be past the acme and then will hurtle down at breakneck speed and everything will pass in a blur.

But looking down (from the peak of the imaginary roller coaster) the feeling is very much like being on a real roller coaster or for that matter more like having taken off, out from the door of a propeller plane at 13000 feet for a sky dive. You have to do it right and land on your feet. And to do it right, you don't want to close your eyes; where's the fun anyway in doing that?

So, let's get it started in here.

2008-03-21

A colorful Road Trip

A road trip typically combines the thrill of driving your own car through countryside and highways with the freshness of seeing rural and natural sights that one gets un-used to seeing in a city. In a road trip natural colors are easy to come by. Here are some colours of Karnataka that that we saw flying around us in the Ghats and along the coastline.

That the Western Ghats are green is common knowledge. The myriad shades of green shone by the tea gardens of Kalasa, Kudremukh and Samse, coffee plantations stretching from Sakleshpur to Mudigere and the sporadic deciduous and rare coniferous foliages sprouting out from deep red mountain soil remind you that tropical heaven is only a few hours drive away from home- the natural red and green.

Green is also the color of hope. The Shiradi Ghat road renovation project gives hope that the Mangalore Bangalore corridor will boost economic growth over the next decade more than what the recently inaugurated railway track will. The 9 inch thick tarmac starting Sakleshpur and the 1 foot thick concrete beams at the hairpin bends are being laid out with deliberation. Making no mistakes this time, the road has been closed to heavy traffic and opened to only controlled private car/light vehicular traffic.

The Greater Mangalore, if you may, area is poised to see amazing growth in the next few years. The infamous, for road accidents, NH17 belt going north from Mangalore is seeing new shades of grey- those of concrete and tarmac laid in the form of four-lane if not six-lane expressway complete with underpass and flyovers. The road will be made safe by itself. Left to man's fancies, however, nothing is safe.

All this, on top of the existing airway, railway will bootstrap the connectivity of the ports and upcoming SEZs with the hinterland. New SEZs for an energy company and several IT companies will lift this town from its tier 2 status to metro in the next decade.

That apart, the blue skies above and backwaters abutting the highway remind you that it is a little too unusual for rains to cause havoc in the evenings. What ought to be pink and blue- the two colors of spring- actually make you think black for the dark evening skies as well as the creeping impact of global warming. Forget that and the white sands of Maravanthe and the aquamarine waters of the sea beyond bring you right back to where we intended to spend one afternoon. Hot, you bet, and sultry worsened by last night's rain.

The legacy of the dynasties remnants of one of which, Hoysalas, we visited at Belur and Halebid ought to carry a bright orange glow. Orange is the color of endurance. That such intricate sculpture work has weathered nature and foreign invasions through the years is a testimony to capabilities and talents of a foregone era. The ornate pillars of the Chennakeshava temple, the hallmark of Hoysala architecture, is replete with the traditional jewellery designs that find their way into contemporary ornaments. The black polished pillars of the Jain Basadhi at Halebeedu even after close to a thousand years reflect the visitors' awestruck faces as if they were built yesterday. The musical notes that can be drawn out from the lightly constructed pillars strike the right chords of surprise.

Looking out for all these colors, we drove out of urban landscape on a Monday dawn, drove through the hinterland and ghats smelling coffee, tea, tender cashew, damp paddy and sugarcane fieldsdown to the hot coastal belt. We drank a lot of tender coconut, locally made carbonated jeera and ginger coolers sun-burned ourselves, sweated out in buckets, swallowed oodles of fresh air, woke up in the mornings to rare sounds of common birds, dug our heels in hot white sands, learned that Kudremukh National Park is replete with vistas of dark green and blue mountains against a pastel blue sky and also learned that exploration of Karnataka by road on our own car is the next best way to do it; the best way is on a bike such as an Enfield.

We returned four nights later content for now but thirsty for more, covering more than twelve hundred kilometers but not tired, intemittently cut off from communications like cell and email but not feeling any bad about it to the home-city happy but not too happy about it.

The colors we saw in this road trip are just a few sprinkles. There is a whole rainbow out there in Karnataka.

2008-03-15

Where is the pulp?

"Where's the pulp? Where's the pulp?" goes the tag line of a fruit drink being popularised, of late. Replace "pulp" with money or even 'reason' and you will know why markets should not rise in the near to medium term. By this, I mean that Sensex will probably not see sustained 17000 to 20000 levels in the next 8-12 months. As of last trading day, the Sensex closed a couple of hundred points below 16000.

Here's why:

1. Technically, at 16000, Sensex has a P/E of about 20, down from 28 at the start of year when record 21000 was breached. Analysts point out that P/E of 15-16 too is justifiable. This means that there is room for bottoming down. This is supported by the fact that 60% of the scrips constituting the Sensex are still trading at a P/E higher than their average 4-year P/E. It may mean they have room for rationalisation.

2. The FM has revised down the projected GDP growth for FY'09 from 'above 9%' to 'above 8%'. Analysts only expect 'more than 7%'.

3. Manufacturing sector has shown negative growth. Down to 5.3% this year, the growth the government says will be close to 11% next year. But there is a big slowdown cloud hanging over that. Given rising cost of imports, at a micro level, profitability will no doubt be impacted.

4. Agricultural output has not stirred any positive emotions while no new provision has been made for prodding agricultural growth. The 60K Cr waiver is not favourable to many or all, but that's another story by itself and it will not put an end to farmer suicides. For FY'08, a recent report forecasted a mere 0.9% growth in food grain output, down from 4.2% last year.

5. The Indian banking sector has only started to publicize its exposure to sub-prime funds.

6. IT sector is still trying to figure out what to make of the recession. But see no upward revision of guidance this year. The Rising Rupee, increase in direct costs and forecasted shortage of talent have already knocked off close to 30% in blue chip stocks. The end of tax holiday in the near future will only squeeze profitability. The flag bearer of 9% growth, services, will be marching only slower.

7. Inflation is rising higher. Already at a 9 month high of 5.11%, this time driven by rising costs (imports), it will be increasingly difficult to sustain operational margins.

8. Rising oil prices will continue to put pressure for an upward revision of petrol and diesel prices in India. But following the recent populist budget, the upward revision would not come by easily. Simply put, it would be an aberration to populist tendencies in preparation for the General Elections. So, oil companies will continue to show deep reds in their books.

9. Infrastructure is not doing that great. Look at the "good for nothing as of now" two 'swank' airports with national records of longest and tallest etc records to their names. Big airports, one already inaugurated, with no way to get to them.Their official launch has been postponed now. Each is an example of priorities that our 'leaders' have. Call the cause technical or political, the impact is economical.

10. Impending general elections may mean no path breaking reforms to bootstrap the above will be taken up now.

In the light of all these, FIIs, especially, hit hard on earnings in the sub-prime era may show faltering confidence, overall, in the current domestic economic scene. The sheen of India Shining episode is getting dulled down by lackluster or almost stalled reforms process.
What about Retail investors? Well, that category of traders or investors has not been driving the index. The recent IPOs have not done well and the market has all but tanked out and is bobbing up and down on a weekly basis. This gives no confidence to a retail investor. They will at best be cautious in putting their money in direct equity.

So, w.h.e.r.e. i.s. t.h.e. p.u.l.p?

2008-03-08

Next phase: A thousand suns

Well into my first week of 'officially' doing nothing, but otherwise doing a lot I can say I have discovered a few things. Foremost among them is the fact that Bangalore does not have that much traffic at all! Surprised? Even I was, because rarely, if ever at all, have I ventured into the heart of the city between 11 AM and 5 PM on a working day.THIS is the time, Bangalore has no traffic at all.

In the process of learning the ropes of Financial Reporting and Accounting from pre-course learning material, at least I have figured out the difference between Expense and Expenditure. Being a layman to the domain, I should say it is no less than a discovery, albeit a technical one.

One of the first things that hits me when I converse with people is my inability to say I work for so and so. A momentary lapse of identity is quickly replaced by the realisation of what it meant before and what it will mean in future.

My break, simply, has started in uncertain times. Overall, there is a lot of grimness about how the events will unfold in the next eighteen months. Indian Banks' revelation on exposure to Sub-Prime Funds, recession fears(? or!) stalking Indian and global markets have started a ebbing phase which will be sustained by impending elections in the US and carried over by elections in India. Bolstering the fears are falling industrial output in Indian manufacturing, sky rocketing oil and gold prices,5.1%-nine-month high Inflation rate in India, 0.6% fall in US retail spending and analyst opinions that US recession could muster enough rubble to match the recession of the twenties.Yesterday's Bear Stearns bailout story is just another nail in the coffin. This is going to be one long year if not a longer eighteen months.

So, while the next twelve months will test a lot of new waters,cause there is bound to be many a storm, on the personal front optimism is rife because behind the dark clouds are a thousand suns.

2008-03-07

A chapter closes

The day that I had been waiting for came; Not 'finally came',it just came.

I started from home later than I had planned for. The current favourite songs were playing on the radio as I drove to work, windows rolled down to let in just the right kind of morning breeze. I also got the favourite spot in the parking lot. So, it’s all falling in place, I thought.

At the desk, it began with opening the mailbox as usual. But instead of looking at the ‘work emails' my attention was focused on numerous responses to my goodbye emails. Only after perusing them did I open the work emails (Oh yeah, even on the last day!). This was followed by chats with a couple of colleagues, who on learning my reason for exit chose to have a tête-à-tête with me. A conversation always yields more than email ping-pong.

My colleagues and managers threw a farewell lunch for me. I had been forewarned that a farewell speech was due. I had only found time to figure out what makes up a good farewell speech. So, with a lot of extempore, I think I delivered a recommended complete speech; after all, it did last about five minutes and I ended it just before they could have begun to lose interest. Anyway, I was keen on listening to what people thought of me. A couple of pleasant surprises came along. You can even say it made my day or my month.

One can never plan the last day to be perfect or smooth. It was a funfilled day but also busy as it could get. I found myself jogging as I shuttled between meeting people, the day's first international conference call, checking on my clearances, getting to the farewell lunch and back, the second international conference call, intermittently backing up my emails that just kept pouring in, taking and making phone calls and surrendering 'company assets' before collecting my relieving letter.

A few people have asked me “Are you feeling sentimental about leaving?”, “Are you feeling sad?” and “How does it feel after so long?” I could only tell them that I have mixed feelings about leaving the current workplace. I am leaving with a little bit of sadness but a lot of excitement and anticipation. (Look for the ‘ship’ in my previous blogpost). May be I gave it enough time to let it settle down in my mind. After all, today marked the end of my 101-day long notice period.

The day that I had been waiting for has gone. Not to be forgotten, but to be blithely put away in that realm of memory where felicitous remembering resides.

2008-03-06

Shooting my neck off

I spent my second last evening at office doing what I like doing most- shooting my neck off! That's just another way of saying that I like setting up my camera on the Monfrotto and shooting away.

I am a huge fan of this campus. When the lights come up and the reflection of each structure is seen in another, it is difficult to stay away from the trigger. Right after sun set, I set up the tools and set out to the remotest corner of the campus. The idea was to capture the splendour of glass and concrete intermingling with greenery, water and light-natural and otherwise.

Ignoring curious looks from people making their way to the company bus terminal, I carried around my camera mounted on the stretched-open tripod. My paraphernalia usually gives an impression that there is some serious work going on. That makes things easier for me, as no one bothers.

And honestly, journalists (by invitation) and cameramen are so common in the campus that one gets used to it. At least once a month, one can spot a bunch of OB vans around the campus. This brings me to an interesting experience, a first for me. Last week, right outside my office building, which is outside the campus, someone from an English language news channel took a reaction from me on the budget. She said I would be on TV 'at 8 PM'. But then I do not get that channel at home. Its sister Hindi channel did not carry me. What do you think...I was glued to the TV. Because never have I been on that side of a camera with a mike pointed at me; for the record, by a good looking journalist. So, unless I was really on TV but missed it, those were five minutes of breath wasted that day.

But you get the picture? Bottom line is that I could work in peace.

I started at around 6 PM, did not care to look at the watch, only made a couple phone calls home to say I would be late and shot around two hundred pictures. I must have walked about three kilometers by the time I made my way back to the main gate. What I did not realise was that it was close to 10 PM when I checked out my 'personal items' on the security register. About four hours? You bet, it was time well spent.

Lest I forget, thanks D for your farewell lunch treat! It made my day.

2008-03-04

Separation Blues- The Final Episode

Three days to go before I walk my last walk out of office gates. Preparing farewell mailing-lists and customising the message for each list is keeping me busy on top of new commitments (believe it! I am sucker for it) at workplace. Meanwhile, getting greetings and goodbyes in return is reminding me that my days here are numbered, literally, "3-2-1".

A colleague who will be joining me at Ahmedabad pinged me to ask how it feels to be so close to the last day. I remarked that the thought is just about setting in and that I do not know how it would feel to wake up this Monday and realise that there is no office to go to.

True, that would be a new feeling. The only time I changed jobs, I worked till the Saturday and joined the current place on the immediate Monday. Sunday had gone in preparing for Monday. Never got time to think that the ship had left the shores in search of new ones, because the new shore was round the bend. This time, the ship is leaving shores seeking new oceans. The ship will not harbour for a long time. What will keep the ship going on is the truth behind-"Good timber does not come with ease. The stronger the wind, the stronger the trees. -Williard Marriot".

With such thoughts of optimism and with some realism drilled in by the brewing global economic situation (sorry for swinging from romanticism to pragmatism in the same breath!), I am counting down from 3. Next three days will be a series of review meetings, courtsey coffees, lunch, sign-offs, return-lunch and final sign-off. It will all go past in a whizz. In the midst of all this, I am planning a photoshoot of the campus around dusk. Let's see how that turns out.