Social network experience and its impact

Since being introduced into Google+, I have tried to understand the why of what's fundamentally different about it. Google couldn't have created it as just another social portal, as they already have Orkut, which today is a been-there-done-that for most users in my Facebook network.

Android users have  several real-time integration benefits with Google+, but for now, let me focus on just the convergance aspect of a social portal. If Facebook is about a Wall, why does Google have Circles? That's where the fundamental difference lies, more than just the terminology. What does this mean to our interactions with the two different tools?

In real life, down to ground level away from the cyberspace, do we consider all friends 'similarly'? We mentally slot people we meet as just acquaintances, friends, like-family, family and many other nuances of relationships tedious to compile here. But what happens when you log onto Facebook? There is one Wall and it is up there for everyone to write as they please and for everyone else to read, even if it is not just 'apt' to share it with everyone.  With a Wall on a Network, you are essentially bringing all to the same plane, whether you like it or not. We have accepted this as this is all we got.

Admit it, there are level of friends and you'd like to share not everything with all of them, at the same time, even if eventually you would.  Then, there is the local 'circle' (school, college, dorm, special interest) specific language that you'd like to use with the right set of people. But hovering at the back of your mind is the point that maybe others that who do not understand what's being said might not 'get it'. What happens then? Think of what happens when a group within a party starts talking about a specialised topic or event that is of no relevance to others. The group rares out. Sure, a Wall is asynchronous or not 'live' since not everyone is not interacting at the same time. But the behavior is nevertheless impacted since everyone consumes the same content, eventually. There might be self-selection in what one consumes. But the fact that the information or impressions were put out there has some impact on the user who put it there and those who read it.

For example, there are some friends you will let 'take you for granted'. This, on Facebook might mean you will let them say anything i.e. metaphorically speaking, piss on your Wall. The implication of this is wider than just that it is for there for all to see. In two recent examples my friends 'violated' discretion by writing things that were not for public consumption. They might have done that under a misguided sense of humor. You cannot avoid such indiscretions, as much as you cannot blame them for their behaviour. One of them, in an offline conversation, even went on to call me hypocritical for having deleted his posts. I am still not sure what impression the online exchange might have left on others. The fact that this problem even occured is an implication.

Circles solves some of these issues. But is the Circles or Circles of Circles (Extended Circles) the ultimate answer? This is a great change toward the right direction, but not a panacea. When we create our own Circles, we still end up adding A and B who are each known to U, but not to each other. How fine tuned would you make your circles? How many Circles can you manage? I am sure there is a smaller Dunbar's Number for Circles you can manage. Will your network set-up imitate exactly what you have in your mind?

So, essentially, bogged down by lack of choices, what are the users doing? They might be either getting used to the idea of 'sharing it all with all', or using discretion in what they share, so that they at least deliver a 'common mimimum' content to the 'Wall' or 'Circles'. In a sense, therefore, even the best tools today still give us a compromised experience, even if they are, innovative, technically well executed and design-wise state-of-the-art. Another question to consider is, how is this group level behaviour changing us at the individual level as we continue to use the available social tools in current formats? There are more questions than answers.

My bigger problem right now is learning to juggle my time for Google+ and Facebook.

Billions of people, infinite secrets

I recently stumbled upon this new website titled and tagged 'Six billion secrets- Everyone has a secret. What's yours?'.

This is one of the most interesting websites I have visited of late. The concept itself is tremendously innovative. Sign up, keep sharing your secrets. People comment on your secrets, offering mostly encouragement. People vote for top secrets. Linked to Facebook, people can 'Like It' a secret.(More on this later). People can share it with others by email or tweet about it.

This kind of a website, does have some benefits as I see it. Firstly, this is a great cleansing mechanism. While Christianity (not segregating sub-sects and their treatment) recommends the practice of Confession, which is all about cleansing, I gather from what I read, see and hear, that only the devote Christians do it anymore. For people who still want to confess outside of a Confession Box, this is as easy as it gets. There are probably as many people reading the secrets as are writing or revealing. While some secrets (on the website) have led to words of encouragement or validation through response comments, most are yet to be commented upon. One can also look at this as an open (still anonymous) personal journal. Writing journals is supposedly therapeutic for some people.

Secondly, it gives readers encouragement that 'they are not alone' when it comes to complications in personal life. Thirdly, if the revealer is looking for guidance, the comments from people will probably, get them the help they were shy to ask in person. In any case, if a sufficient number of people advise, there will probably be a heightened sense of relief to the revealer that he or she got the right guidance (wisdom of the crowds principle, in a way), which would not happen if the revealer told the secret only to one person.

It has been interesting to read about the type of secrets being written down. Some are downright confessions, some life changing concerns if addressed, some have tremendous amount of pain in them, others are romantically cute admissions.

However, I could not figure out what 'top secret' means to people. It is clear there is a voting mechanism ("Choose Yes ONLY if the secret really moves you!"). Possibly, 'Like It' votes too fetch some weightage toward top secret tag. But why would the voter say he or she 'liked it'? Is it because it is well articulated? people appreciate 'coming out' with that secret, because it is so deep? Or is it because the secret is moving? If names were revealed, is there potential for most 'damage'? What determines Top here?

But there are several questions that come to mind with such a bold concept.

Would you write a secret here? Even under an assumed name? Would Indians see same value in the website as I would expect Americans, British or other culture people to? I would love to know the real answer to this, as real stats on the website could reveal. As far as I could see, there is no such facility on the website. I would think such information might carry some commercial value to, say, psychiatrists. In the Western developed world, having a personal shrink is a normal requirement. Maybe shrinks play the role that families and large set of friends do not. In some cases, they are the only recourse to situations that require 'medical' attention. Will this website abate the need for frequent visits to shrinks? Why not, because afterll a a shrink, supposedly, does not say anything judgmental, but only guides the 'patient' into revealing their innermost motives, thoughts, secrets in confidence. Sure, one will not be able to diagnose or prescribe meds for what any condition that might get diagnosed by a psychiatrist.

I kept thinking about it and could not conclude. However, one of the "secrets", more of a quote summed up exactly what I was thinking.

It's secret #8067 "Now that I think about it, I'm glad we can't read minds.The world would be a much scarier place."

Check out www.sixbillionsecrets.com

Recalling brand stories

Brands are like friends, good friends are honest and don't let friends down. This is, in brief, one of the points that Professor Abraham Koshy (
Read Profile ) made in his recent article on ET(Read Here).

Maruti-Suzuki A-Star's is an apt caselet for brand crisis prevention. Maruti-Suzuki's major, even if not the first, recall highlights the sea change in how Indian producers treat their consumers.

But when did Indian brands, let's say specifically, Indian automobile brands become good friends of the consumer?

One of the key effects of our open market economy in automobile industry is that Indian players are no more taking consumers for granted. Faced with powerful peers who are quality conscious, responsible and honest, Indian producers have learned that for them "it 's the right way, or the highway". It was also probably the oft blamed Indian 'chalta hai' attitude coupled with the existence of seller's market for a long time, that had led to manufacturers' propensity to ignore issues that bothered consumers.

In 1999, I purchased Enfield's first aluminium-engine bike called Machismo A350. The bike suffered from noisy valves that chattered wildly. But Enfield did nothing despite complaints and the bike failed miserably. New avatars of the bike emerged a couple of years later, but many were left holding lemons.

Then, take for example, Bajaj Chetak's famous 'tilting of the scooter' trick. Unless the scooter was tilted at a difficult angle, known only to an owner, the fuel wouldn't start flowing. I remember seeing this growing up in the '80s, when scooters ruled, as well as in the mid 2000s, when aerodynamic bikes whizzed past the humble scooter. Everyone knew it was a fuel problem (you did not see it in other scooters, by the way). But Bajaj did nothing, apparently, to fix the problem for 20 odd years. I guess after some time the tilting became an ownership statement, a romantic one at that. And Bajaj could probably get away because of the strong heritage value. A Bajaj scooter offered mass consumer value on which India rode for a few generations.

But at some point in time between the 90s and early 2000s two things overtook the Bajaj scooter phenomenon. First, were the Bajaj bikes, which themselves were a response to the flood of 100 cc bikes that, to name the pioneers, Hero Honda and TVS Suzukis had caused. The second was the shifting consumer preference. Who cared for a technologically stagnant product when there were so many options available? Pick up any auto magazine and see how many pages the bikes table, already written in small sized font, runs into. So, is this one of the reasons why the Bajaj scooter was put to rest?

Today, however, it is the buyer's market. Consumerism, aided by information-empowerment in the background of open competition has helped clean up the manufacturer's act and enabled consumer to 'unfriend' the brands she cannot trust.

Where is the pulp?

"Where's the pulp? Where's the pulp?" goes the tag line of a fruit drink being popularised, of late. Replace "pulp" with money or even 'reason' and you will know why markets should not rise in the near to medium term. By this, I mean that Sensex will probably not see sustained 17000 to 20000 levels in the next 8-12 months. As of last trading day, the Sensex closed a couple of hundred points below 16000.

Here's why:

1. Technically, at 16000, Sensex has a P/E of about 20, down from 28 at the start of year when record 21000 was breached. Analysts point out that P/E of 15-16 too is justifiable. This means that there is room for bottoming down. This is supported by the fact that 60% of the scrips constituting the Sensex are still trading at a P/E higher than their average 4-year P/E. It may mean they have room for rationalisation.

2. The FM has revised down the projected GDP growth for FY'09 from 'above 9%' to 'above 8%'. Analysts only expect 'more than 7%'.

3. Manufacturing sector has shown negative growth. Down to 5.3% this year, the growth the government says will be close to 11% next year. But there is a big slowdown cloud hanging over that. Given rising cost of imports, at a micro level, profitability will no doubt be impacted.

4. Agricultural output has not stirred any positive emotions while no new provision has been made for prodding agricultural growth. The 60K Cr waiver is not favourable to many or all, but that's another story by itself and it will not put an end to farmer suicides. For FY'08, a recent report forecasted a mere 0.9% growth in food grain output, down from 4.2% last year.

5. The Indian banking sector has only started to publicize its exposure to sub-prime funds.

6. IT sector is still trying to figure out what to make of the recession. But see no upward revision of guidance this year. The Rising Rupee, increase in direct costs and forecasted shortage of talent have already knocked off close to 30% in blue chip stocks. The end of tax holiday in the near future will only squeeze profitability. The flag bearer of 9% growth, services, will be marching only slower.

7. Inflation is rising higher. Already at a 9 month high of 5.11%, this time driven by rising costs (imports), it will be increasingly difficult to sustain operational margins.

8. Rising oil prices will continue to put pressure for an upward revision of petrol and diesel prices in India. But following the recent populist budget, the upward revision would not come by easily. Simply put, it would be an aberration to populist tendencies in preparation for the General Elections. So, oil companies will continue to show deep reds in their books.

9. Infrastructure is not doing that great. Look at the "good for nothing as of now" two 'swank' airports with national records of longest and tallest etc records to their names. Big airports, one already inaugurated, with no way to get to them.Their official launch has been postponed now. Each is an example of priorities that our 'leaders' have. Call the cause technical or political, the impact is economical.

10. Impending general elections may mean no path breaking reforms to bootstrap the above will be taken up now.

In the light of all these, FIIs, especially, hit hard on earnings in the sub-prime era may show faltering confidence, overall, in the current domestic economic scene. The sheen of India Shining episode is getting dulled down by lackluster or almost stalled reforms process.
What about Retail investors? Well, that category of traders or investors has not been driving the index. The recent IPOs have not done well and the market has all but tanked out and is bobbing up and down on a weekly basis. This gives no confidence to a retail investor. They will at best be cautious in putting their money in direct equity.

So, w.h.e.r.e. i.s. t.h.e. p.u.l.p?

Cables and wars

Idle minds or devil's workshops, whatever you may call ours, but there seems to be some value in our paranoia, after all.

Last week, a friend and I were discussing about the 'yet to be officially acknowledged,by Fed Bank, but already heating up' recession in the US economy when the topic turned to how, apparently, wars have been fought just to revive or jumpstart flagging economies. Naturally, the discussion then turned to what the "Economic Hit men", if you may, would do to counter the stagflation lurking at US shores. It is widely prophesied that the impact of US recession would be minimal or marginal on the growth of emerging economies such as India.

Now, there is theory that wars in future would be not physical ones but more of 'intelligence wars', not in the sense of espionage but intelligence as relates to information and telecom technology pillaring economies. It leads to less bloodshed and, apparently, has more impact toward hampering the sustenance of normalcy in the enemy territory. The Internet, in such cases not only becomes a potential war ground, but an Achilles ‘heel for some economies. It was but natural for us to concur that stagflation and multiple cable damages were too much coincidental.

As far as the internet or the web is concerned, all roads lead to Rome. So, if something big goes down, it will probably slow down the flow of information, but networking technology will sustain the flow (with all disclaimers that apply). Apparently, this logic does not so easily apply to the Suez Canal cables. We were unaware of the criticality of 'these' cables.But looks like were not paranoid for no reason.

Read an article here to understand more about the nature and impact cable damages and to, at least to our surprise, know that we were not just dreaming out loud. Phew!

Einstein's point to ponder: "I am not sure how the third world war will be fought. But I am quite sure that the fourth one will be fought with bows and arrows."

Global B-School rankings: Good news! And then some

Business school fraternities across India should be proud of the recent development in the MBA world. One of the best Indian B schools, ISB, Hyderabad, a path breaker in several ways has made it to the top 20 ranks among global B schools.Read the rankings here.

This development should add more shimmer to the 'India Inc shining' picture. Global investors are progressively looking at emerging markets for better returns. If experts are to be believed,the sole hope over the next year (with imminent US recession), lies in BRIC and other emerging markets, the only ones that can deliver least 18% returns. This, combined with the fact that an Indian B school has been ranked with the top league should make prospective international students think whether studying in an Indian B school and spending a part of their career in Asia is the way to go. The relative cost of education is low and opportunities aplenty.

ISB ought to be in the top schools list for several reasons, despite being young- the program structure, the composition of visiting international faculty, the corporate backing the school has, international alliances, the placement percentage (100%), and not in the least, the five-star facilities in the campus.

The article in The Times of India, read here, has quoted the methodology of computing the remuneration figure. Apparently, the average salary of $169,000 was arrived at by using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Now, the PPP between INR and USD is between 6 and 8, for such purposes as calculating remuneration and, well, spending power. This means that at ISB, the average Indian Salary is between INR 10.5 Lakhs and INR 13.52 Lakhs using the limits of PPP.

In general, however, the average salary is mostly misleading, for any school. This is because,by nature of average, a few distinguished top grossers will even out (or skew?) the impact of the many more at the lower end of remuneration scale. Median ought to be more representative but again may not comprehensive. But hey, all schools use the same logic, so we are on level ground here.Are we really, if we use PPP? Because, back home, when top schools report highest-salaries, they convert an international 'USD package' in INR by simply using the forex conversion rate, thereby launching the package into unbelievable stellar heights. That's another story altogether.

In any case, using average ,the numbers in other top Indian B-schools would be in similar range viz.IIMs- A, B and C, FMS, XLRI, SPJIMS. Barring IIM-B and FMS, other schools have a new 'international' one year program. The PGPX program at IIM-A and PGPEX at IIM-C for 'students with substantial experience' have reported 'average' INR 25 Lakhs and INR 20 Lakhs respectively. In terms of PPP, this will translate to an average minimum of USD 315,000 and USD 250,000 using a PPP of 8 (Obviously, 30% higher using 6). Like other aforementioned schools, IIM-A and IIM-C have a legacy of about 40 years and a wide international acceptance of their students and do not lack anything; except a five-star living, perhaps. So, why are these schools not in the list? Did they not participate?

This makes me wonder that in these schools, the people who teach marketing to the people who eventually run the businesses of the world ought to know better.So, why are they not telling? In fact, back home, in the more popular 'BusinessWorld' rankings, IIM-A and IIM-B have been only intermittently participating for the last 3 years.Most ranking sheets, nowadays,in India are based on student responses rather than statistics provided by schools and rarely, if any, by industry.

At the end of the day, the bottom line of any business school is as important as the lessons on bottom line they teach their students. ISB's marketing has left no holds barred. An example is the fact that even I, a prospective student of the past, have received an email from the dean of ISB about this successful ranking.

Nevertheless, with this success of ISB, the top B schools of the world will wake up to the challenge of Indian B schools. Congrats ISB!

Update: Read Rashmi Bansal's view point here. Something I noticed: Ms.Bansal's research has used PPP in a forward-count. This post used a backward-count. Hence, a small difference.

Further update: The reason that the other B Schools mentioned herein do not yet qualify at that level is the fact that in their programs, students with zero experience are also included. Programs exclusively for experienced students have not been running for 3 years.

Find PPP Conversion tables here

Fueled by stupidity, we drive nowhere

An article in today's newspaper talks of certain obscene measures the local goevernment is contemplating in order to 'beat' the traffic woes that bring down every Bangalorean. Let's begin with how well you can recall your car number? Stumped? You will be, when you will need to remember what day it is and match it with the fact whether your car number is odd or even. Am I kidding? Apparently not, according to this article.

This is a clear case of the government trying to pass the buck to the already frustrated commuter of the Silicon Swamp that Bangalore has become. Traveling in your car even on weekends is akin to bicycling through a desert- slow and tiring and it doesn't take you far. After decades of lethargy, lack of planning and conservatism that translated into apathy to infrastructure requirements, the government has given the people of Bangalore what can be considered as an ever-make-shift arrangement around traffic. Caught in the sudden limelight of explosive growth driven by IT and ITeS influx and a never ending scramble between anti-development opposition 'leaders' and pro-development incumbents, the latter fails to deliver anything. Left headless without a government, the local authorities have come up with this stupid solution of letting people drive on alternative days. Some audacity that, taking people of Bangalore for a ride (no pun intended).

But is curtailing people from driving in a city that has no public transportation except bursting-at-the-seams, almost never on time, never ever enough bus system a befitting solution?

Some questions arise. Let's say your car has an even number and an emergency at home requires you to take your car out on a odd-car day. What should you do? Should you be allowed since a life is at risk? How easily can someone not fake an emergency? Would government vehicles be exempt from this rule? If people can be expected to fend for themselves, should the minister not lead the way and travel in a bus?

Why could the government be not thinking of ideas like that implemented in London? Out there, toll zones have been identified and the cars need to pay a steep toll to just drive through congested areas. The presence of technology companies seemed to have made no impact on the retrograde authorities of Bangalore.

The whole plan of alternate-day driving stinks of escapism and will lead to another series of half-hearted attempts to solve the problems that should have been addressed decades ago.

Quality of life in Bangalore in terms of commute is steadily declining with lot of help from the backward-looking attitude and indecisiveness of the powers that be. Impractical suggestions like curbing driving privileges only add insult to injury. Hiding behind the shield of 'it has worked in some European countries' the local bodies seemed to be pleading to be forgiven for failing to come up with practical ideas. This is the cost we pay for throwing out the corporates (PPP) with social-conciousness from the game.

This is exactly when I want to thank Ratan Tata for his Nano. Now, all I need to do is to buy a Nano, get it registered with an even number and I am good to go. I will drive my regular car on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays and the Nano on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Hush, don't tell anyone about the Nano!

El Nano Effect

Catapulting itself into the league of world-changing automobiles, Nano has rolled out of the portals of Tata Motors. Unveiled earlier today,apparently, to a roaring welcome, Nano will change India and in a way that will impact us for a long time to come.

With a lot of scepticism about the way this car will change Indian way of life, I had tried to surmise (read here and here) that India and Indians will come under a lot of pressure when this dream car becomes a reality. Saying something to the effect of 'a promise is promise' Ratan Tata has delivered a mean-mini-machine at an unprecedented and mere USD2700 unit price. Any doubts about India's technology around frugal manufacturing will be put to rest today, once the pictures start flashing around the car markets of the world; to be eventually buried when the car proves its performance on the road over the next few months.

Giving an unparalleled 50 Mile Per Gallon (test conditions?) for a petrol driven car with contemporary looks, Nano, will probably capture the imagination, interest and pockets of millions upon millions of Indians and other third-world-ians. At the same time it will set, if it proves true, new benchmarks. I am doubtful about this last part since the basic tenet of Nano has been to be a cheap car; no great shakes about creating a lean-burn technology.

However, the little beauty, on the face of it, has much to offer. Tata's ever expanding dealer and service network will carry this car into the remotest corners of the country. That is a big problem, because this car will also probably spread in the urban landscape like a forest fire. And when that happens, every square inch of tarmac on our narrow deficient streets will cry for mercy and the people behind wheels beg for redemption. Well, that may be a little too dramatic, but the fact remains that if this car succeeds the way it ought to for TATAs to breathe easy and the way it looks ready to, Indian way of traffic management, infrastructure support in terms of roads, bridges and parking space will first collapse, then taking us through months and years of failure, regret and disillusionment, deliver us to something innovative.

I have very little faith left in me about how Bangalore will survive the deluge (just wait and watch) that Nano will unleash. Nano will change our lives by challenging the administration to better itself.

Since road will be so packed, is this the right time to think about a cheap helicopter, may be for for a million rupees or two. Meanwhile get ready to face a huge demand-supply crack in petrol once the millions among us get enticed by the economy-dream-come-true Nano. Small Car.Big dreams.Bigger Pains.

Nevertheless the boldness behind a concept-realised, yet to be tested on road, is commendable.

Watch videos here.

See pictures here.

Tata Small Car Website is here

Side-effects of globalisation

In the book 'The World is Flat", read short review here, Thomas Friedman illustrated globalisation via scores of, well, global firms, and one of them was Dell Inc. The supply chain intricacies at Dell lent themselves to the emergence of 'Dell Theory of Conflicts'. Like the book, my experience with Dell, albeit post-purchase, is no less speckled with side-effects of globalisation.

The story begins with the occurrence of a problem that turned my laptop into a lemon, defined here. I have been using a Dell Inspiron 5160 for close to three years now.This should tell you that with the basic warranty long expired and without extended or global warranty I am vulnerable. And until recently, I was oblivious to the existence of #M1004. This is the error code Dell-ians see on the BIOS screen after their laptop is 'preventively shutdown to avoid damage due to overheating'.

I saw this error for the first time few months ago,soon after I upgraded the RAM four times over to 2 GB. I was hoping to get more out of my laptop. I was getting more heat out of it, alright! This paralysed my normal usage of the laptop, since the preventive shutdown happened at 70 degree C, which was reached within 40 minutes of operation. Thus began my research on the problem that had fortunately or unfortunately eluded me since the laptop had arrived at my doorstep. Googling #M1004 gave me more than I had expected. Dell 5150 and 1150 were doomed as far as I could see in online forums.5160, though an evolved version of 5150 with 'fixes to avoid overheating' and at least did not 'melt' or 'explode', still suffered from bad ventilation design. More research told me that the motherboard-heat-sink combo were defective and there were class action suits in Canada and the US. Apparently, even the devout Dell-ians were peeved.

Recently I learnt that, since early 2006, Dell had been replacing the defective hardware for free (one time only). Wow and Oops!"Wow!" because the combo hardware costs close to Rs 25K (half the cost of laptop) and it requires substantial commitment from Dell to replace it for hundreds of thousands of laptops sold out of the Inspiron lot. while I also know that from Dell's point of view a case-by-case replacement would be cheaper than a recall. "Oops!" because I m now living in India and my laptop has a US warranty which has expired.

So, I started tracing the steps followed by many to gain temporary or in some cases permanent relief. BIOS upgrade came first. Version 8 of the BIOS cought to optimise fan operation. But it did not help. Cleaning the vents and heat sink was the next possibility. With more research, I learnt to open a Dell Laptop and was amazed at how neatly so much is packed in 1.5 inch thickness (5160 has older design). I stopped short of opening the heat sink assembly. My gut told me that I should contact Dell India and find out what they can do; give me some the minimum coverage at least.

I was surprised by the support Dell gave me. I placed an online request, to which I got a response within 10 hours. As far as the US ownership was concerned, I was told that I could initiate a transfer to Dell India. That would eventually happen, but meanwhile I could run hardware diagnostic tests (I had told Dell India that I am an advanced computer user, hadn't I?). After sharing the results with Dell India, I not only got a phone call confirming the problem but was also , hold your breath, told that Dell would replace the motherboard and heat sink for free!

That I got such good service ought be a side effect of globalisation. Of course, with significant Indian operations, offering service to Indian customers is but imperative. Having made the original purchase in the US probably gave me some edge for getting prompt service; but I have a feeling I would have got it even otherwise. I am saying this based on the fact that last year Nikon India had replaced a defective power module, post warranty, in my digital camera. (They did charge me a service and shipping fee). Nikon USA had at that time made free replacement for cameras within warranty period. Both the pieces of equipment had been widely acknowledged as being defective; in case of Dell, leading to class action suits in North America. But to benefit from an America lawsuit sitting in India?

The ease with which all transactions happened tells a lot about the CRM commitment global companies ought to provide, irrespective of customers' global location. Global companies have to put more effort in giving one face to their brands. They cannot discriminate, because an Indian customer today can be a customer in the US tomorrow or, the day after, one in Japan. American regulatory system ensure compliance to frameworks for resolving to conflicts between sellers and buyers. Be it in the BRIC or other emerging economy nations, buyers are more aware and more enabled, not just by information, read as Internet, but also by the expectations they have from brands. They have the money to buy top brand items. If you are paying top dollar, literally, you deserve top dollar service. This is evident in other popular examples such as the Dell's global replacement of laptop batteries and more recently Nokia's worldwide replacement of certain cellphone batteries.

Hopefully the new heat sink and motherboard will perform better. Whatever the side effect, I am happy Dell customer now. #M1004 anyone?

Would you buy a OneLakhCar? (Part-2)

What if the OneLakhCar were to become popular?

Nightmare! I am not saying everyone should not have a car. I am just surmising about what will happen if they do. Are were prepared for it at any level? There are several ways to slice this issue. Here are some that came to my mind.

Roads: Indian cities are not built to accommodate so many cars, not so soon at least. And cities like Bangalore, definitely not, with chock-a-block two-lane roads, piled-up four-lane ones. Mayhem will be an understatement for what we will witness. As if autorickshaws are not a menace enough that we need more of such devilish vehicles. Come to think of it, the economy of a OneLakhCar (A Bajaj 3-wheeler costs 1.75 lakhs on road) combined with the promise of a 5-seat capacity, might just mean we will see the end of these reckless rattlers which are nothing but necessary evil. This is probably the only positive outcome of the OneLakhCar.

Traffic Indiscipline: Not all people who drive cars can ride bikes, probably because they never learnt to ride a bicycle (basic reason, reasons of relative safety keeps many off the roads). People who might otherwise not have driven because they could only afford a bike they could not ride, will be more inclined to drive. So, we will see more new drivers. For Indian drivers 'Driving is a privilege not a right' are words lost in the din. One can get a license to drive a car if he has a couple of hundred bucks in his pocket. With such abysmal regulation on who is given license to drive, the potential havoc caused by millions of more car drivers on roads leaves little to imagination.

Parking space and its effect on real estate: Go to the 'downtown' areas in any of the cities and you will notice that we just do not have the space to keep these cars. Even now, parking is not very economical, if available at all. Not just commercial parking, but personal parking too is important. How many of the builders with 600 apartments or more in a compound have actually planned for a car in every family? With such need for parking space, real estate prices will move north.

Environmental concerns: Emission levels will probably be low for a small engine like that of OneLakhCar's but only if the right fuel is used and the car is regularly tuned and maintained. What if adulterated and mixed (for economic benefit) fuel is used? People do it with a 1.75 Lakh rickshaw. Will they refrain from experimenting on a 1 Lakh Car? Pollution control is not as strictly enforced as required, except probably in the National Capital Region.

How will these cars be recycled (they will need to be at some point in time)? Most of the junked cars end up being cannibalised for spare parts (legal only in some cases) or their metal parts being melted and recycled. What will you do with millions of tonnes of composite frames and bodies of the OneLakhCars? Bio-degradable waste is itself difficult to dispose (for reasons of volume), where will we find space to dump composite bodies?

More cars, more green house emissions, more global warming. This outcome was always expected, but the OneLakhCar will only accelerate this process. No, I am not saying people should stop buying cars. Technologically advanced those maybe, but five times as many cars as in India are sold in the US itself. Why should Indians not be buying them? Fair, if India were not per-capita a 9th the size of the US. The thought that one million cars will be sold every year is mindboggling. Current annual car sales in India stand at about 600,000; there will be three times as many cars getting into Indian roads every year, if the TATAs meet their target.

Two-wheeler business will be worst hit, as repeat bike buyers are expected to be converted in to car buyers. Heavy pressure to push prices and costs down will only lead to planned declines in production of bikes and it will be no surprise if other companies too convert their facilities to make variants of the OneLakhCar. Renault has plans to bring out the $3000 car with Bajaj auto (talks with M&M fell through). The Renault car will be probably be more advanced than OneLakhCar in terms of safety as it has a higher tag.

In principle, Ratan Tata's dream of getting a car into every home may turn out to be a pyrrhic victory. The economical car may come at a big price for India in the long run. Rise in standard of living of socio-economic categories, as my untrained-in-economic-theories-mind perceives happens when the affordability of goods increases based on true increase in income to reach that level of affordability not when the level of affordability is brought down to existing levels of income. Commoditisation happens when the latter phenomenon is brought about. In a gimpy infrastructure, only the load on the system increases when commoditisation happens in items such as cars.Were these cars special in terms of environment-friendly technology such as electric or solar, the argument could have been reversed. Apparently, they are not.

Maybe I am being simply too biased against this car for some paranoia I cannot explain. Maybe it will not be so bad after all. Maybe I have not fathomed the adapting power of the Indian system. Then maybe, I am just dreaming!

Would you buy a OneLakhCar? (Part-1)

TATAs are not blusterers and they have delivered in the past. Making it the 3rd largest player, TATA Motors has 17% marketshare in passenger car segment. Tata Motors has never had it this good in the last few years despite general declining sales in auto industry, commercial included. TATA Ace has bridged the gap of the 'perfect vehicle' for last-mile logistics, with its 1-tonner 'tempo' which is selling like hot cakes. Ace's commercial passenger cousin 'Magic' is similarly expected to set tracks on fire . One last tidbit: in commercial segment, TATAs have a whopping 65% share. Having put them in this perspective, it would be goosey to say TATAs have not read the market.

But in an upwardly mobile middle class, would a 1 Lakh Car be popular?

There are many dimensions one must consider before answering the question. Living in a city and seeing more and more newly-introduced models from Hyundai, Honda, Corolla, GM, Ford and MUL swoosh by on urban roads (I believe there is deep but random penetration in villages too), I have my reservations about this car. Rural market might be the target, but if the OneLakhCar is competing with Maruti800, one must take into consideration that the latter has seen steady decline in sales even in rural markets in the last two years.

When MUL came out with the original Maruti-Suzuki in the 80s, indeed, the objective was to bring home an affordable car for the common man and a 1 Lakh (or so) tag was acceptable at the time. And what a car it was with original Japanese engine and know-how! The bean car brought in a technological leap in auto industry. None of the indigenously built cars could match up to what Maruti-Suzuki offered. Be it size-wise performance, maintenance or economy of ownership. There is little that needs to be said about MUL's success. So, the idea behind Maruti was a noble one, if you know what I mean.

In principle, the intent behind the OneLakhCar seems to be less nobler (for lack of another term). Affordability seems to be the only criterion for this car. Of course, the TATA quality and brand will assure that the car is not made with cheap parts (brand equity based assumption), but price seems to be the only basis for differentiation, something that will not incite enthusiasm in every buyer.

To push down costs, there are bound to be compromises (within the realm of TATAs brand equity). Component manufacturers have invested capital hedging on the success of the car. Metal costs only rising, the body of the car is said to be of composite material rather than steel or aluminium. (This has been done before- the most elegant example being the sexy Corvette. But hey, they may not use the same stuff here!)Unofficial estimates put the margin-to-manufacturer at Rs.5000 per car. Further, based on work done by analysts, having invested Rs.6000 Crores, TATAs have to sell 1 million cars every year (and they plan to) for four years to break even. Is this possible?

Recent announcement that by year 2009, air-bags in new passenger cars will be no more optional but factory-fitted-mandatory, it is worth asking if the OneLakhCar has this cost built in. Or will it only be 1 Lakh ex factory? Costs toward Bharat IV and EURO III norms would no doubt have been built in.

What about the design? Speculation is rife on whether the car will be a Reva look-alike, Mini-Indica(!) or the Lankan MiniCar (a rounded Reva, I found out after some Googling). Whatever it is, on a 600cc engine, one cannot expect a huge frame. Then how will it be a four or five seater? I secede, I am not design-savvy.

There is a growing need for mobility given the changing lifestyles and lame public transport. The culture of using public transportation is slumping for several reasons, affordability not being the least of them. Mobikes and scooties if not cars fill parking lots of colleges and sometimes schools. The average price of mobikes has crossed Rs.50K, and that of high end indigenous bikes is closing in to Rs. 1 Lakh. Relative safety considerations and the aspirational value of a car would thereby sway a first time buyer or a two-wheeler owner toward the OneLakhCar.

So, there is a reasonable chance that the car will be popular since there is a huge market out there. And there is no offering in this segment right now.

(Coming up...what will happen if the OneLakhCar does its magic.)