In Mumbai, it's all drama ...(Part 3, the critique)

Continued from the previous posts. First, read here then here.

The two scenes you read are real experiences, down to the details. The same thing happened to me twice in three/four months. It was not in the same place or similar time of the day, almost same nothing, except the trickster's modus operandi. The two points of rendezvous are separated by several miles. Mumbai suburbs are chock-a-block full of hundreds of thousands of cars and millions upon millions of people. What are the odds that this trickster had to run into me, again? What a statistical oddity, I initially thought.

Now that I think about it, there may be a reasonable explanation. After all, what would Levitt and Dubner say? I said earlier that scenarios were 'almost same nothing'. There might have been a reason she asked me for money the first time around. It must have been the car I am driving (my new and as such a popular mid-size sedan). That has to be a key factor.
Think of it this way...

Her modus operandi involves approaching people with a particular profile. On the road, it would be determined by the car people are driving. Also, just to make sure that there is no influence around the person who is approached, profile might also include a key point that the driver is only occupant in the car. And in order to elicit a favourable response, another reasonable filter might be that the driver is not an occupational driver but a self-driving owner. In Mumbai, a good proportion, even if not majority of car owners have a driver.(Sample set being my colleagues, neighbours and people I see on my usual route to work). The universal set is smaller now. This narrows the odds. The way probability works in reality, distribution is a mere estimate, not an actual map of how the events will pan out; clustered, rarefied, regular, whatever, but unpredictable. I seem to have been part of a statistical congregation.

When I told my wife, S, about the first scene she was flummoxed. 'So, why are you telling me this story after many months?' When I told her about scene#2, she could not believe it. 'People will do anything to make money. But, how smart (as in cunning-smart)' was her response.

While we were trying to size the opportunity of the road trick, it dawned upon us that maybe the auto rickshaw driver is a part of the game too. They share the spoils. S pointed out that when someone asks for help like this, it is likely that people will not look for change and will hand over a single bill. If you believe the trickster's story you will give her at least what she needs. If asked for 80, you'll probably hand over a 100. So, at hundred a piece, assuming she successfully melts five hearts, only during busy parts of the day, each month she is making more than, to quote an honest vocation, what an average public school teacher would make.

That's a handsome side business. Exchange a few words and earn quick bucks. The business model must be working and working well, if it is still alive for atleast few months that I witnessed it (could be longer, only I've known it for as long.)

Public mooching is indeed profitable. Any takers? Just make sure you don't fall for the particular auto vixen. (A bit cockily, I might add, say a hello to her if you do meet.)